The Potential Impact of Global Flu Pandemic

Описание: This AIR video depicts a scenario taken from the AIR's Pandemic Flu Model, which captures the excess morbidity, mortality, and insurance losses caused by the pandemic influenza. Historical data includes mortality rates from the 1918 Spanish Flu catastrophe.

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Transcript:
To investigate the potential financial impact of a global pandemic, AIR leveraged its global pandemic model to simulate a hypothetical pandemic scenario. The one we chose has a similar virulence to the devastating pandemic of 1918 with a return period between 100 and 200 years. The map you'll see shows the progression of the event including the number of mortalities in each country. The pandemic begins in Mongolia and spreads rapidly to other countries including Russia, China, Korea, Armenia, Germany, Japan, Hong Kong, Tajikistan, and the Ukraine. Travel restrictions and quarantine measures take effect in the originating country by the end of the second month. However these actions are not effective in preventing the rapid spread of the pandemic. The World Health Organization declares a pandemic Phase Six in the fourth month indicating a global pandemic vaccines begin to come online only in the sixth month. The first batch is a reserved for high-risk individuals such as those with underlying medical conditions children and health care workers who are generally considered to play a crucial role in the spreading of influenza. The efficacy of the vaccine, which varies by patient age, ranges between 40 and 60% which means that the vaccine works for only about half of those people who receive it. The pandemic continues to sweep across the world although cases are reported in all age groups, the very young and very old experience the most severe infections as is the virus impacts a disproportionate number of people under age 65. The R0 value for this pandemic, a measure of how many new victims a disease carrier is likely to infect is about 1.5 - only slightly higher than a common cold with pandemic mortality. Typical seasonal flu the virulence of the virus as measured by the case fatality ratio is comparable to that of the Asian flu and Hong Kong flu pandemics or category 2 pandemic on the CDC's pandemic severity index scale. At this level workplaces are advised to consider modifying schedules and rely more heavily on telework and staggered shifts. At the end of 22 months the World Health Organization declares the end of the pandemic it has killed more than 21 million people and infected more than 1.6 billion people worldwide or nearly 23 percent of the world's population. Life insurance losses exceed 45 billion dollars. As severe as it sounds this pandemic does not represent a worst-case scenario in terms of pandemic risk. To help companies prepare for the full range of possible outcomes, the AIR Pandemic model offers a 500,000 year catalog of 17,000 simulated events.