Balancing on a Fault Line: Turkey Between Russia, Ukraine, and the US

Описание: The final months of 2025 heightened Ankara’s anxiety as the Russia-Ukraine war spilled into the Black Sea and Turkish airspace. Turkey shot down a drone that violated its airspace and recovered two more crashed, Russian-made drones within five days, prompting warnings to the warring parties to show greater restraint in the Black Sea. The incidents came at an especially delicate moment for Turkey’s relations with both Washington and Moscow. Ankara is eager to reset defense ties with the United States and resolve the S-400 dispute, which led to US sanctions under the Trump administration. One option under consideration is returning the S-400s to Russia—a step that could anger President Putin just as Turkey seeks to reduce its dependence on Russian energy, even though that dependence remains substantial. At the same time, Turkey is under growing pressure from the US and Europe over its defense and energy links with Russia, while Washington is also pushing Ankara to play a mediating role in ending the war. The result is a tightening triangle: Moscow, Washington, and Ankara.

Key questions now loom: Can Turkey sustain this three-way balancing act? Where does Ankara stand on Trump’s peace plan, which would require Ukraine to cede territory to Russia? How does Moscow view Turkey’s S-400 dilemma? And what would the continuation of the Russia-Ukraine war mean for Turkey’s security—and for its already strained relations with the West?