World Knowledge Forum 2025 Panel on Trade Policy Folly

Описание: The panel consisted of Wendy Cutler (Vice President at the Asia Society Policy Institute), Pinelopi Goldberg (Professor at Yale University and former Chief Economist at the World Bank), and William Lee (Chief Economist and Executive Director at the Milken Institute)—each highlighting distinct perspectives on U.S. trade policy and its global ramifications.

Wendy Cutler described the marked shift in U.S. trade policy away from multilateral engagement and rule-making toward a more unilateral and interest-driven approach, now imposing tariffs on both adversaries and allies. She emphasized the risks of U.S. withdrawal from global leadership, weakening institutional checks on executive power, and warned that other nations are forming their own agreements, potentially isolating the U.S. from future regional benefits.​

Pinelopi Goldberg highlighted the unprecedented scale, breadth, and unpredictability of current U.S. trade actions, underscoring that tariffs are higher, apply more broadly, and lack coherent policy goals—sometimes hurting close allies more than distant partners. She argued that conflicting objectives create deep uncertainty for governments and businesses, driving some countries to consider gradual disengagement from the U.S. to manage risk.​

William Lee argued that tariffs are a component of a broader U.S. economic strategy—alongside tax cuts and deregulation—intended to attract global investment to the U.S. by promising higher returns and stability. He accepted that using tariffs for multiple, sometimes conflicting aims causes volatility, but contended this might result in a more resilient, multi-polar set of supply chains if managed well.​

Each panelist persuasively defended their viewpoint and acknowledged the complexity of the current trade environment. However, no clear “winner” emerged: the exchange exposed the significant uncertainty and competing priorities in U.S. trade strategy. While Lee presented an internally coherent rationale for the administration’s approach, Goldberg offered a more pointed critique of its contradictions and the resulting global uncertainty, and Cutler brought crucial historical and institutional context. The consensus was that uncertainty will persist, with the overall tone leaning more toward concern than confidence about the new direction of global trade.
Contents:
00:00 Introduction
01:57 Wendy Cutler’s Speech
07:45 Pinelopi Goldberg’s Speech
17:41 William Lee’s Speech
26:11 Rebuttal to William Lee’s View
31:23 Additional Remarks by Wendy Cutler
33:42 William Lee’s Counterargument
37:27 Will Uncertainty Become the New Global Order?
46:38 Q&A: Can Tariffs Really Eliminate the Trade Deficit?