ASEAN thermal coal market outlook: What to expect in 2021? -- Dr. Lars Schernikau

Описание: ASEAN thermal coal market outlook: What to expect in 2021? Speaker: Dr. Lars Schernikau, Shareholder HMS Bergbau

Friday, January 29, 2021 == 14.00 – 15.30 WIB

The global outbreak of Coronavirus Disease (Covid-19) has changed the world’s coal demand and supply trend during 2020, including Indonesia – the world’s largest thermal coal exporter. Miners are facing more volatility on coal price and risk than ever before.

The government estimated Indonesia’s coal export may be at least 392.4 million tons in 2020, a 14 percent lower than coal export realization in 2019 at 454.5 million tons.

The government, however, expects higher coal export potential this year on strong demand in key market of China and also in new markets in the region such as Vietnam, Bangladesh and Pakistan.

The Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources projected the country’s coal export volume would be in the range of 406.3 million-427 million tons this year with coal export to the China market is estimated to range from 185 million tons to 202.3 million tons.

The government has set coal production target of 550 million tons this year, or the same as last year’s target in a bid to help revive the price of the commodity. All coal miners in the country must adjust their 2021 production plans to the government’s output target.
The International Energy Agency (IEA) forecasts a 2.6 percent rise in global coal demand in 2021, driven by higher electricity demand and industrial output. China, India and Southeast Asian economies account for most of the growth, although the United States and Europe may also both see their first increases in coal consumption in nearly a decade.

The IEA, however, said that global coal demand in 2021 is still forecast to remain below 2019 levels and could be even lower if the report’s assumptions for the economic recovery, electricity demand or natural gas prices are not met.

The rebound in coal demand in 2021 is set to be short-lived, with coal use forecast to flatten out by 2025 at around 7.4 billion tons. IEA stated that the future of coal will largely be decided in Asia. Today, China and India account for 65 percent of global coal demand. With Japan, Korea, Taiwan and Southeast Asia included, that share rises to 75 percent. China, which currently accounts for half of the world’s coal consumption, will be especially influential.


The webinar would be held on six series to explore coal supply and demand trend in domestic, ASEAN, India and China, Japan and Taiwan and exploring the prospect of Indonesian coal to the global markets.

ASEAN Coal Market Outlook and Supply trend
Friday, January 29, 2021 == 14.00 – 15.30 WIB

14.00 – 15.30: (English) How will Indonesia Miners adapt to the ASEAN coal market?
What is the current status of coal use on power plants in ASEAN countries, particularly in Malaysia, Thailand, Philippines and Vietnam?
What is the future’s coal demand and supply for coal-fired power plant in ASEAN? What is the future portion of coal on energy mix policy compared to oil and gas?
What factors are shaping the coal consumption trend?
What are strong points of Indonesian coal to supply coal to ASEAN market compared with other producing countries?
Clean Coal Technology outlook in ASEAN
Miner’s perspective of the prospects for Indonesian coal to ASEAN markets in 2021

Keynote Speech: ASEAN thermal coal market outlook: What to expect in 2021?

Speaker: Dr. Lars Schernikau, Shareholder HMS Bergbau

Speakers:
Thu Vu, Energy Finance Analyst of the Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis (IEEFA)
Thao Dh Ngo, Group Executive chairman of First Indochina group, Vietnam
Ghee Peh, Energy Finance Analyst at the Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis (IEEFA)
Agustinus Thamrin, Director of PT Manambang Muara Enim (MME).
Beni Suryadi, Manager of Power, Fossil Fuels, Alternative Energy and Storage (PFS), ASEAN Centre for Energy.

Moderator : Hendra Sinadia, Deputy Executive Director of Indonesian Coal Mining Association (ICMA).