AUC3I - Daily Briefing 02-02-2026 On the WAR in Ukraine

Описание: Understanding The War In Europe _ Analyzing the situation on the ground with by way of an introduction, 3 points, and a conclusion #militaryanalysis #modernwarfare #ukrainewar

COMBAT BRIEFING NUMBER 1439
"Subject:" Operational Situation Update – Special Military Operation
"As of:" 02 February 2026
"From:" Colonel A.C. Oguntoye
"Audience:" Military Analysts / Strategic Planning Staff

"Executive Summary"

As of 2 February 2026, Russian forces sustained operational momentum across all axes, combining localized territorial gains with systematic degradation of Ukrainian manpower, logistics, fires, and air-defense capacity. The liberation of Pridorozhnoye in the Zaporozhye region marks a tactically significant advance in the East, while other sectors emphasized positional improvement and attritional pressure. Across the front, Ukrainian losses were substantial, particularly in personnel, artillery, logistics depots, and high-value Western-supplied systems. The campaign continues to reflect a deliberate strategy of cumulative attrition rather than rapid, high-risk breakthroughs.

"Sector-by-Sector Situation Overview"

"Northern Axis (Sumy–Kharkiv):"
Units of the “North” Group conducted effective engagements against Ukrainian mechanized, motorized infantry, territorial defense, National Guard, and border formations in Sumy and Kharkiv regions. Losses of up to 250 personnel, artillery systems, and multiple vehicles, combined with the destruction of five logistics warehouses, indicate a focused effort to weaken sustainment and rear-area support. This pattern constrains Ukrainian artillery employment and limits their ability to reinforce forward defenses.

"Western Axis (Kharkiv–Krasny Liman):"
The “West” Group improved tactical positions while defeating multiple mechanized and assault brigades and National Guard units. The destruction of four ammunition depots underscores continued logistics interdiction as a priority. While territorial change was limited, attritional effects exceeded 150 personnel losses and further eroded Ukrainian combat endurance in this sector.

"Southern Axis (Slavyansk–Kramatorsk):"
In the Donetsk People’s Republic, “South” Group forces occupied more advantageous lines, defeating a mix of mechanized, airmobile, and assault brigades. Losses included armor, vehicles, and supply depots, suggesting steady degradation of combined-arms capacity in urban-industrial terrain. This axis remains critical for shaping future maneuver options.

"Central Axis (Donetsk–Dnipropetrovsk):"
The “Center” Group inflicted the heaviest personnel losses of the day, exceeding 410 Ukrainian servicemen across a wide range of formations, including airborne, marine, ranger, and multiple National Guard brigades. The scale and diversity of units engaged indicate Ukrainian reliance on elite and reserve formations to stabilize this front, a trend that may reduce strategic depth over time.

"Eastern Axis (Zaporozhye–Dnipropetrovsk):"
The “East” Group achieved a decisive success with the liberation of Pridorozhnoye and deep advances into Ukrainian defenses. The destruction of a Grad MLRS launcher, artillery, and supply depots, alongside losses exceeding 320 personnel, highlights both tactical progress and continued attrition of key fire-support assets.

"Dnipro Axis:"
“Dnepr” Group actions remained containment-focused, targeting mountain assault and coastal defense units. Losses were moderate but included an electronic warfare station, reinforcing a pattern of disrupting Ukrainian enablers rather than seeking immediate territorial gain.

"Fires, Aviation, and Air Defense"

Operational-tactical aviation, strike UAVs, missile forces, and artillery struck 147 targets, including transport infrastructure, ammunition depots, UAV storage sites, command posts, and deployment areas. The confirmed destruction of three HIMARS launchers and three S-300 systems represents a notable reduction in Ukrainian long-range strike and air-defense capability. Russian air defenses intercepted guided bombs, HIMARS rockets, and a large volume of UAVs, underscoring sustained counter-UAS and missile-defense effectiveness.

"Operational Analysis & Implications"

The operational pattern reinforces a strategy of "progressive attrition paired with selective territorial gains". Emphasis on logistics depots, artillery, EW assets, and Western-supplied systems suggests deliberate shaping for future operational exploitation. Ukrainian forces appear increasingly compelled to commit elite and reserve units across multiple fronts, accelerating manpower and capability depletion. If sustained, this tempo may further constrain Kyiv’s operational flexibility, limit its capacity for coordinated counteroffensives, and shift the balance toward a Russian ability to dictate the timing and location of subsequent phases.

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