AST SpaceMobile Stock Analysis: Why $120 is NEXT | ASTS Technical Breakdown 2025

Описание: SHORT-TERM TRADE SETUP (3-10 days)
Bullish Continuation Play
Entry Zone: $98.50-$101.00 (on minor pullback or consolidation)
Stop Loss: $93.00 (below Daily S01 at 93.56)
Target 1: $109.50 (4H R01) - Probability: 60%
Target 2: $112.50 (hiTarget#2) - Probability: 45%
Target 3: $115.50 (4H RXT) - Probability: 25%
Risk/Reward: 1:3 to Target 1, 1:5 to Target 2
Probability of Profitable Trade: 65-70%
Bear Case Consideration
If price fails at $104-105 zone, watch for rejection back to Daily S01 ($93.56) with 55% probability of touching this level within 5-7 sessions given extreme PPM readings.

LONG-TERM TRADE SETUP (30-90 days)
Strategic Accumulation Play
Primary Entry Zone: $88-$93 (Daily S02-S01 cluster + SMA10 convergence zone)
Secondary Entry: $83-$85 (SMA21 support area)
Hard Stop: $80.00 (below all major technical support)
Target Structure:

Target 1: $120 (hiTarget#3) - Probability: 55%
Target 2: $135-140 (measured move extension) - Probability: 35%
Target 3: $160+ (parabolic scenario) - Probability: 15-20%

Probability of Profitable Long-Term Trade: 70-75% (assuming entry in pullback zone)

Critical Observations

WTAR Forecasts divergence: 3-period forecast at 96.39 vs 40-period at 73.98 suggests short-term momentum override of longer-term mean reversion pressure
Volume surge (17.6M) confirms institutional participation at breakout
All PPM derivatives positive = acceleration continues, but watch for PPM3 2nd derivative (0.0692) - lowest reading suggesting deceleration forming at longer timeframes
Pre-revenue valuation risk: Fundamental disconnect creates binary outcome potential - either moonshot on contract news or sharp correction on dilution/disappointment
Catalyst calendar critical: Watch for launch announcements and government contract details as primary volatility drivers

Overall Market Regime: Strong bullish trend with elevated volatility. Favor pullback entries over chase entries given extreme PPM readings and ATH positioning.
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