2026 Market Outlook: Rate Cuts, USMCA Trade Wars, and Normalized Returns

Описание: Allan Small breaks down the Top 5 Things to Watch in 2026 before making your investment decisions. After a year of incredible gains, what should individual investors expect next? Allan analyzes the essential factors that need to go right for the market to continue its upward momentum.

We dive into the critical role of the technology sector, noting that for the market to go higher, tech momentum must continue given it makes up nearly half of the S&P 500. We also examine potential trade pitfalls with the USMCA renegotiation and discuss the expectation for a "dovish" Federal Reserve, with potential interest rate cuts on the horizon.

In this video, we cover:

Tech Dependency: Why names like the "Mag Seven," Broadcom, and IBM must perform for the S&P 500 to succeed.

Trade Wars: The renegotiation of USMCA/NAFTA and why 75% of the population still views the agreement favorably.

Market Risks: A look at Deutsche Bank's list of 2026 risks, including a plunge in tech valuations and private capital crises.

Normalized Returns: Why investors should adjust expectations to the 8-10% range after the TSX's 30% gain in 2025.

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Thank you for watching. Please check out the full show on my YouTube channel.

00:00 – Intro: Top 5 Things to Watch in 2026
00:07 – The "Must-Haves": Tech Momentum & Market Balance
00:42 – The Trade Threat: USMCA Renegotiation
01:01 – Fed Predictions: Will We See Rate Cuts?
01:14 – Deutsche Bank’s List of Market Risks
01:29 – Reality Check: Expecting Normalized Returns (8-10%)
01:51 – Deep Dive: Tech Stocks & AI Dominance (S&P 500)
03:03 – Deep Dive: US/Canada/Mexico Trade Relations
04:21 – Deep Dive: Federal Reserve Interest Rate Targets
05:53 – Deep Dive: The #1 Risk to the 2026 Market (Tech Valuations)
07:25 – Deep Dive: Moving from 30% Gains to Normalcy
08:40 – Conclusion: Keeping Emotion Out of Investing

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Do you have a question about investing? Feel free to call me at 416-332-3863 or email me at [email protected]