May 2024 Tanker Market Update

Описание: Firm tanker rates in Q2-24 with expectations of continued strength in both the near and medium term.

Spot tanker rates have remained firm during the second quarter of 2024 with continued positive supply and demand fundamentals and increased tonne-miles due to ongoing geopolitical events.

The Trans Mountain Pipeline expansion (TMX) to Vancouver commenced operations on May 1st. Given that Vancouver is restricted to Aframax tankers and is relatively far from the main Aframax trade lanes, this development should generate significant tonne-mile demand for Aframaxes as export volumes ramp up over the coming months.

Fleet supply fundamentals continue to look very positive over the medium term, and we believe that the foundations are in place for continued strength in spot tanker rates over the next 2-3 years.

Chapters:
0:05 Introduction
0:19 Spot tanker rates remain at firm levels during Q2-24
0:30 Benchmark tanker spot rates in the last 12 months
0:40 Strong LR2 rates year due to vessel diversions away from the Red Sea
1:00 Chart of oil moving across
1:43 Trans Mountain Pipeline Expansion creates a new source of Aframax demand
2:20 Aframax routes with the Trans Mountain Pipeline Expansion
3:24 TMX to create incremental demand for around 25-30 Aframaxes
3:49 OPEC+ expected to extend supply cuts into Q3-24
4:12 Oil Supply and Demand Growth
4:36 Long-haul movements from the Atlantic to Pacific set to boost tanker demand in 2H-24
4:58 Global oil demand expected to grow by ~1.5 mb/d in 2024 and 2025
5:45 Increase in new tanker orders over the past 12-18 months
6:00 Orderbook still well below long-term average levels
6:20 Mid-size newbuild deliveries vs. Vessels turning age 20
6:46 Very low tanker fleet growth expected in the next 2-3 years

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Forward Looking Statements

This content contains forward-looking statements which reflect the Company’s current views with respect to certain future events and performance, including statements regarding: tanker market fundamentals, including the balance of supply and demand in the tanker market, and spot tanker charter rates. The following factors are among those that could cause actual results to differ materially from the forward-looking statements, which involve risks and uncertainties, and that should be considered in evaluating any such statement: changes in spot market tanker rates; changes in the production of or demand for oil; changes in trading patterns significantly affecting overall vessel tonnage requirements; greater or less than anticipated levels of tanker newbuilding orders or greater or less than expected level of tanker scrapping; changes in applicable industry laws and regulations and the timing of implementation of new laws and regulations; changes in the typical seasonal variations in tanker charter rates and other factors discussed in Teekay Tankers’ filings from time to time with the United States Securities and Exchange Commission, including its most recent Annual Report on Form 20-F and subsequent Reports on Form 6-K for the quarterly periods ended thereafter. The Company expressly disclaims any obligation or undertaking to release publicly any updates or revisions to any forward-looking statements contained herein to reflect any change in the Company’s expectations with respect thereto or any change in events, conditions or circumstances on which any such statement is based.