Wolfers Unpacks the Two Trumps: The Populist Who Talks v the Country-Club Conservative Who Governs

Описание: What happens when tariffs look illegal, housing “fixes” barely move the needle, and a president talks like a populist but governs for the country club?

Economist Justin Wolfers breaks down why much of Trump’s tariff regime may be on shaky legal ground, and what it would mean if the Supreme Court strikes a big chunk of it down. He explains that the national‑emergency justification is dubious, and that a ruling against the administration could instantly erase roughly two‑thirds of the current tariff structure.

Wolfers also weighs in on Trump’s claim that ordering the government to buy $200 billion in mortgage bonds will meaningfully cut mortgage rates and solve the housing affordability crisis. He argues that the real power over interest rates lies with the Federal Reserve, so any effect from this move is likely to be tiny—measured in hundredths of a percentage point, not in real relief for homebuyers.

Finally, Wolfers zooms out to contrast “what Trump says” versus “what Trump does”—from sounding like Bernie Sanders on tariffs, housing, and CEO pay, to delivering tax cuts for the wealthy and cuts to benefits for working and middle‑class Americans. The rhetoric is populist; the policy, he argues, is straight out of the Republican country‑club handbook.

Wolfers explains:
Why the legal basis for Trump’s tariffs looks weak and depends on a questionable “national emergency” claim
How a Supreme Court ruling could wipe out country‑specific tariffs while leaving some product‑based tariffs in place
Why any refunds from illegal tariffs are unlikely to reach small businesses and ordinary families who paid higher prices
How Trump’s proposed $200 billion mortgage‑bond purchase collides with the Fed’s central role in setting interest rates
Why the impact on mortgage rates would likely be trivial, not a game‑changer for housing affordability
How both parties have toyed with banning institutional investors from buying up single‑family homes
Why Trump often sounds like a left‑wing populist while governing like a traditional pro‑wealth Republican
The split between an economy that works for asset‑owners and one that leaves most households “on a treadmill”
The political strategy behind headline‑grabbing economic promises that rarely materialize

If courts strike down key tariffs and voters see through symbolic policy stunts, the gap between Trump’s economic promises and everyday economic reality could become impossible to ignore.

Timestamps:
0:00 Trump’s tariffs head to the Supreme Court
0:52 Wolfers on why the tariffs look illegal and what could be struck down
1:45 Who actually gets tariff refunds—and who gets left out
2:34 New Trump plan: $200 billion in mortgage‑bond buying
3:00 Wolfers on why the Fed, not the White House, drives mortgage rates
3:39 The bipartisan talk of banning Wall Street from buying houses
5:11 Two economies: asset owners vs everyone else
5:39 Populist talk vs country‑club policies

🎯 Key takeaway: Populist‑sounding economic promises make great soundbites, but the real test is who actually gets help—and who keeps paying the bill.

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