Banking analyst Jim Antos of Mizuho Securities talks about the factors that would make ...

Описание: BANKING ANALYST JIM ANTOS OF MIZUHO SECURITIES TALKS ABOUT THE FACTORS THAT WOULD MAKE A BEAR MARKET RALLY POSSIBLE AMID CHINA'S UPCOMING EARNINGS SEASON.

SHOWS: HONG KONG, CHINA (AUGUST 7, 2013) (REUTERS - ACCESS ALL)
JIM ANTOS, BANKING ANALYST, MIZUHO SECURITIES
1. REPORTER OFF CAMERA SAYING:
"2013 so far has been a challenging year for Chinese banks. With the earnings season coming up, could we see possibility of a bear market rally?"
2. JIM ANTOS SAYING:
"Maybe; the thing is that the earnings growth has slid tremendously in the last three years. I think three years ago it was about thirty percent year-on-year for the full year, you know? And in the first quarter I think we're down to twelve percent, something like that. And I think the market's a little bit confused as to whether we're going to have good earnings growth or not. Here's the scenario: if you see what you would have called formerly the high-growth banks have high earnings growth in the first half this year in the second quarter results in the latter part of August, then I think there is a chance for a bear market rally. Which ones are those banks? It actually is Minsheng Bank that has lots of credit problems and Agricultural Bank that actually has a weak credit portfolio also. But watch for that. Now here's the other problem. Bank stocks trade on macro-data and confidence in the macro-economy. Confidence is maybe not at an all-time low but it's pretty low right now for China. And the government hasn't really taken any step forward at all at this point. So I think we need two things. I think we might want to see those high-growth banks, traditionally high-growth banks, to have high earnings growth in August. And then followed up soon with good macro-data and some strong policy statements that we haven't had at all from the hierarchy. If we have that, we have the chance to have a bear market rally."
3. REPORTER OFF CAMERA SAYING:
"Tell me about this bear market rally. What do you think we could see and when?"
4. JIM ANTOS SAYING:
"Okay you know the thing with a bear market rally; what you have-they're best rallies in the world to trade. Because actual...