Navigating uncertainty - S2:E3

Описание: In episode 3 of The Nudging Financial Behaviour Podcast, we’re looking at uncertainty and how it differs from risk. This discussion is all about known and unknown probabilities. We also unpack two biases – The Gambler’s Fallacy and The Hot-Hand Effect.

We thought that the best way to really get to grips with these biases was to chat to someone who knows a lot about trading. Our guest is Garth Mackenzie, a prolific trader with plenty of exciting stories to tell about his years working on the markets.

Chapters:
00:00 Introduction
02:41 Two urns
03:41 Insurance cover
05:09 Law of Small Numbers
06:09 Gambler’s Fallacy
07:26 Hot-Hand Effect
09:17 Trading with Garth Mackenzie
13:42 Gambler’s Fallacy examples with Garth Mackenzie
17:41 Hot-Hand Effect examples with Garth Mackenzie
19:50 Emotional capital with Garth Mackenzie
21:07 Market crashes with Garth Mackenzie
24:07 Advice from Garth Mackenzie
28:51 Risk and probabilities

Useful links:

More about Garth Mackenzie:
• LinkedIn -   / garth-mackenzie-05115a52  
• Talking with Traders - https://iono.fm/c/4983

Risk, Ambiguity, and the Savage Axioms by Daniel Ellsberg - https://www.jstor.org/stable/1884324
Belief in the Law of Small Numbers but Amos Tversky and Daniel Kahneman - https://www.stats.org.uk/statistical-...

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🧾 You can also read more on our blog: https://www.nudgingfinancialbehaviour...

🎙️Or listen to the audio version of this podcast: https://nudgingfinancialbehaviour.pod...

Special thanks to our sponsor: IG Markets South Africa