Ukraine's Sabotage: Offering Russia the Impossible /Alastair Crooke & Lt Col Daniel Davis

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Alastair Crooke argues that continued Western denial of Russia’s resilience will likely result in a Russian military victory. With negotiations gridlocked, they say conflicts often resolve only through a “trial of strength,” which can end in sudden collapse rather than gradual change. They warn that Russia’s advances—particularly in southern Ukraine—could accelerate unexpectedly, as morale and political cohesion break down, drawing parallels to the rapid collapse of Afghan forces in 2021.

They contend Ukraine faces not just battlefield pressure but internal political crisis: corruption scandals, loss of parliamentary support for President Zelensky, growing calls for elections, and widespread disillusionment among families of soldiers. This, they argue, creates conditions for a cascading military and psychological collapse.

The discussion also highlights Russian alarm over recent strikes near strategic nuclear assets (bombers, early-warning radars, and command facilities), suggesting Moscow may interpret these as escalatory signals that cannot be ignored, even if nuclear war is unlikely.

Looking ahead, they predict that if Ukraine collapses militarily, European leaders—having publicly committed to “Russia must lose”—will face a severe political and psychological reckoning. The broader conclusion is that Europe is entering a painful period of upheaval as the post–Cold War order breaks down, with major political, economic, and social instability likely before a new order emerges.