How to Measure a Full Market Cycle Using ADR | Resets, Peaks, and Targets | FXN Group Session

Описание: This video is a Q&A session focused on one thing most traders get wrong: assuming the market “has to” reverse just because price hit a cycle target. In here, I explain how I use ADR math to estimate cycle distance, why cycles aren’t identical, and why you still need a peak formation before switching bias.

What’s covered in this session
-How to estimate cycle length using ADR
-Example logic: if ADR is ~150, then 3× ADR ≈ 450 (cycle distance reference)
-Using pip distance to targets and comparing to ADR to estimate how many “cycles” to reach a level
-Why “hitting the number” doesn’t mean you buy immediately
-Price can keep running without a clean reversal
-Rule stays the same: no peak formation = no buy

Why ADR settings matter (and why your numbers may not match mine)

Default ADR often uses 21 days
-I prefer 14 days because I care more about recent conditions
-Shorter period = more sensitive to current volatility

The most important point: every cycle is different
-One cycle might average ~125
-Another might be ~95
-Another might be ~70

You adjust to current conditions instead of forcing one fixed number

Quick TradingView help (useful if you’re customizing your chart)

Where to change session line colors and thickness (Inputs)

How to make lines brighter or solid if your eyes struggle

If price scale text is too small: consider using your computer display scaling settings

Daily structure targets (simple way to mark levels)

When price is trending down, I’m looking left for the bounces that caused moves up (those become likely targets on the way down).
When price is trending up, I’m looking left for the previous tops (those become targets on the way up).

Live performance advice (don’t skip this part)
-If your backtesting shows pullbacks happen ~70% of the time, then your default should be:
-Wait for the pullback

Or place a limit order to catch it
Because if you don’t wait, you can’t be surprised when the pullback happens.

Add-ons / scaling in
-I rarely add to positions. If I do, it’s only when:
-I entered, price moved, then pulled back again
-The add-on is small
-The stop loss stays the same (risk stays controlled)

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