Why Singapore Is About to Get Brutally Hot

Описание: The Blue Cats’ website: https://www.thebluecats.com.sg/
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On 29 May 2026, the Meteorological Service Singapore (MSS) and the National Environment Agency (NEA) announced a high possibility that El Niño conditions will develop between June and July 2026. El Niño typically affects Singapore most during the Southwest Monsoon season from June to September, a period when rainfall already tends to drop significantly. The agencies are also monitoring a positive Indian Ocean Dipole, which may develop later in the year. This phenomenon cools sea surface temperatures in the eastern Indian Ocean, leading to fewer clouds and drier weather. If both phenomena coincide, they could bring warmer temperatures and lower rainfall across Singapore and the region from June to October 2026, raising the risk of transboundary haze over the same period.

El Niño occurs when the trade winds that normally blow from east to west across the Pacific Ocean weaken. Under normal conditions, these winds push warm surface water towards Southeast Asia and Australia, encouraging clouds and rainfall that keep the region wet. During an El Niño event, the warm water shifts back towards the central and eastern Pacific, closer to the Americas, causing Singapore and surrounding areas to become hotter and drier. El Niño develops every two to seven years, alternating with its cooler counterpart La Niña and a neutral phase in between. Singapore is currently in the neutral phase.

The upcoming El Niño is being compared to the strong event of 2015, the most severe in recent memory. In 2015, prolonged dry conditions worsened forest and peatland fires in Indonesia, and the resulting smoke drifted over Singapore. The Pollutant Standards Index reached 471, the highest reading in Singapore's history at that time, with any reading above 300 classified as hazardous. Air quality remained at unhealthy levels for roughly two months from September to October 2015, and the heat persisted into 2016, when the average temperature from March to May reached 29.2°C, a full degree above the long-term average. Looking further back, 1997 was Singapore's driest year on record, when both El Niño and a positive Indian Ocean Dipole occurred together. That year the mean temperature reached 28.2°C against a long-term average of 26.8°C, total rainfall fell to 1,539 millimetres compared with the usual average of around 2,266 millimetres, and the PSI peaked at 226 in September during a haze outbreak from August to October.

Over the coming months, Singapore should prepare for warmer temperatures, noticeably less rainfall, and an elevated risk of haze stretching into October. MSS and NEA expect this El Niño to begin at moderate strength, though they cautioned it could grow stronger between August and September. Recommended precautions include staying hydrated, being mindful of prolonged outdoor activity during the hottest parts of the day, and following official updates through the myENV app and the NEA website.