📌 Canada’s Population Outlook Just Shifted — Here’s What It Means for Real Estate.

Описание: 📌 Canada’s Population Outlook Just Shifted — Here’s What It Means for Real Estate

The latest population projections from BMO Economics show Canada entering a new demographic era, and this could reshape housing demand over the next decade. 🔍 Read the full report here: https://economics.bmo.com/en/publicat...

📉 Slowing Growth — A Big Change

Canada’s annual population growth is now forecast to fall to around zero this year, before gradually rising to roughly 0.7–0.8% by 2029. That’s a notable drop from over 1% growth in the decade before 2019, and a far cry from the record growth near 3% seen in 2024.

This reflects a combination of changing immigration targets and shifting birth-death dynamics — including fertility rates that are trending lower.

👶 What It Means for Housing Demand

💡 Fewer first-time buyers emerging?
A key driver of housing demand over the last decade was the Millennial generation moving into prime homebuying years (ages 25–39). That growth is now peaking and expected to decline through 2028, which could soften demand from this crucial segment of the market.

💡 Births may turn negative
Statistics suggest net births could drop below deaths by 2028 — a historic first in Canada — reinforcing the slowdown.

🌍 Regional Shifts Will Matter

Population isn’t slowing equally across Canada:

Prairie provinces like Alberta are expected to keep growing faster than the national average thanks to younger populations and internal migration.

Ontario and B.C. may feel the demographic brake more sharply in the near term as immigration and non-permanent resident gains wind down.

Quebec could see near-zero growth over the next decade.

📊 What This Means for the Real Estate Market

➡️ Housing demand could soften: As population growth slows, the total number of buyers entering the market may level off — especially first-timers.
➡️ Pricing dynamics may adjust: With demand growth moderating, the pace of price increases could moderate as well in some markets.
➡️ Supply balance matters: Slower demand might ease pressure on tight inventories, but long-term housing needs will still be influenced by cross-Canada migration and local economic conditions.

In short, Canada’s demographic story is shifting, and the real estate market will feel the effects — from the type of buyers active in the market to where demand is strongest. Great insights for buyers, sellers, and investors planning ahead.

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