Risk of Taiwan wildfires increasing: study of Professor Liu group

Описание: Climate change is significantly elevating the threat of wildfires in Taiwan's subtropical forests, an island traditionally viewed as having low susceptibility to large-scale fires due to its high humidity and abundant evergreens. Research reveals that the primary climatic drivers of increased wildfire risk in Taiwan are prolonged dryness and increased variability in rainfall and humidity, rather than extreme high temperatures. This heightened risk is compounded by the fact that abundant precipitation 9 to 12 months prior to the fire season can lead to excessive vegetation growth, which then transforms into sufficient fuel supply during subsequent dry periods. These climate anomalies have already been linked to instances where the normally robust evergreen subtropical forests halted carbon sequestration (known as "NEE turnover"), temporarily shifting the ecosystem from a carbon sink to a carbon source during the severe 2020–2021 drought. Projections indicate a substantial surge in future wildfire occurrences, with the average wildfire count expected to increase by approximately 35.6% in the late twenty-first century (2070–2099) under the high-emission RCP8.5 scenario compared to the 1992–2021 baseline. Consequently, experts urge the integration of advanced data-driven approaches, such as the Fire Weather Index (FWI) and satellite-observed groundwater levels, into risk management to develop more effective strategies and policies for mitigating future climate-driven wildfire catastrophes in Taiwan.