NFL DFS Week 15 Bias Check | Matt Prich

Описание: Bias Check Week 15 is here. This week is all about recognizing where our beliefs turn into biases––and how to flip the math in our favor instead of getting trapped by certainty. We dig into what happened with James Cook, how to approach chalk at RB, when to pivot to Josh Allen builds, and why sub-1% running backs keep breaking slates.

We also look at Week 15 game environments (DET–LAR, CIN–BAL), where volume spikes can come from, how to think about Sims without getting boxed in by them, and why “playing fearless” still matters deep into the season.

If you’re trying to build for first place, not min-cash, this episode is for you.

#NFLDFS #DraftKings #DFSStrategy #OWS #Week15DFS #DailyFantasyFootball #NFLWeek15 #DFSAdvice #GPPStrategy #BiasCheck

00:00 – Intro / Week 15 Bias Check
00:39 – Real-life chaos + DFS chaos
01:28 – Weather, unpredictability, and late-season volatility
02:19 – Belief vs truth: how biases form
03:13 – Example: James Cook belief and competing data
04:03 – Why Cook didn’t hit + what those outcomes teach us
05:26 – Turning bias into leverage: Cook → Josh Allen lineups
06:35 – How to put the math in your favor
07:01 – Risk profiles and chalk RB strategy
08:16 – Week 15 analogue: Woody Marks vs ARI
09:12 – Why Woody Marks isn’t a sure thing (and how bias forms)
10:27 – Recognizing bias in rushing yard expectations
11:11 – How to use Houston pieces if playing (or fading) Marks
12:15 – Sims talk: removing bias vs adding projection bias
13:24 – What Sims actually help with (groundhog day analogy)
15:00 – Chalk, ownership, and first-place probabilities
16:44 – How Sims shift ownership late in the week
17:48 – Playing fearless + evaluating backup QB uncertainty
18:57 – The importance of path-to-200 builds
20:15 – Low-scoring weeks + recency bias check
22:07 – RB ownership trends: why chalk RB is still viable
23:35 – Week 14 recap: only sub-1% RBs broke the slate
24:22 – Why sub-1% RB shots are still +EV
25:17 – How increasing RB salaries are affecting outcomes
26:07 – The value of mixing chalk with sub-1% RBs
27:00 – Strategy for testing sub-1% RB plays
28:23 – Why Week 15 likely won’t be another low-scoring slate
29:44 – Resetting mindset and returning to ceiling hunting
30:39 – Where to hunt volume spikes this week
31:07 – Game environments: DET–LAR, CIN–BAL, SF–SEA
33:12 – Certainty traps and how to avoid them
34:00 – High-volume WR considerations (Chase, Flowers, Likely)
35:22 – When Baltimore pass volume spikes
36:07 – Rams/Lions shootout considerations
37:29 – How to use biases productively
38:40 – Season-long learnings + Week 15 encouragement
39:27 – Final thoughts and “play fearless” send-off