Base metals 2022 outlook: Bears may come out of hibernation

Описание: from 5 per cent in 2021 to 4.3 per cent in 2022. History shows that a year of slower growth compared to the previous year has always resulted in a fall in metal prices. In 2011 the expected slowdown in global economic growth in 2022 is more likely to drag metal prices lower. China is the world’s largest producer and consumer of base metals. The energy crisis in China in the second half of 2021 saw metal prices surging on the back of supply cuts. Seasonal production cuts in the country also pushed up prices. However from a projected 5.9 per cent growth in 2021. The US Federal Reserve has forecast the US to grow at a slower 4 per cent in 2022 compared to a projected growth of 5.5 per cent in 2021. According to the IMF 000 tonnes in lead and zinc respectively estimated for 2021. Nickel is likely to turn to a surplus after a deficit forecast in 2021. According to the International Nickel Study Group the growth across key geographies is likely to slow down in 2022 as compared to 2021. The International Monetary Fund projects the global economy to grow at a slower pace of 4.9 per cent in 2022 metal prices continued to rise in 2021 as well. The Bloomberg Base Metal Spot Price Index surged 32.8 per cent in 2021 after witnessing a 19 per cent rally in 2020 demand is likely to remain subdued. The IMF projects China to grow at 5.6 per cent in 2022 data shows that China’s Construction Business Activity Index has been on a decline. The index has dropped from 62.3 in March to 56.3 in December last year. Other economic activity data points also indicate a slowdown in China. For instance 2015 and 2018 — when global growth slowed down from the previous years — the base metals price index tumbled to give negative returns. The Bloomberg Base Metals Spot Price Index had tumbled 23 per cent can drag metal prices lower. The base metals complex is largely likely to be in surplus in 2022. Many closed down smelters are set to resume operations 000 tonnes in 2021. Copper is forecast to run into a surplus of 328 25.17 per cent and 24.94 per cent respectively. LME Lead prices rose by 15.55 per cent