MSFT: 24% Overvalued? DCF Shows $531.52 vs Fair Value

Описание: MSFT DCF Valuation Analysis 2025 | Microsoft Corporation Stock Analysis

Complete discounted cash flow analysis reveals MSFT trading at $531.52 vs intrinsic value of $401.48 - that's 24.5% overvaluation. Professional valuation methodology with transparent assumptions.

VIDEO CHAPTERS:
0:00 Introduction - Is MSFT Worth It?
0:13 Company Overview - Microsoft Corporation Business Model
0:41 Price Comparison - Current vs Fair Value
0:58 Growth Analysis - Revenue Projections & Methodology
1:26 Risk Assessment - WACC Breakdown
1:44 Cash Flow Projections - 10-Year Model
2:02 Valuation Results - Enterprise to Equity Value
2:29 Sensitivity Analysis - Testing Key Assumptions
2:49 Conclusion & Resources

QUICK SUMMARY:
Current Market Price: $531.52
Calculated Intrinsic Value: $401.48
Valuation Gap: 24.5% overvalued
Revenue Growth Assumption: 14.9%
Terminal Growth Rate: 4.0%
Discount Rate (WACC): 8.9%
Growth Confidence Level: 100.0%
Sector: Technology
Market Cap: $4.0T

METHODOLOGY:

Growth Assumptions
We applied log-linear regression to 10 years of revenue data, weighted toward recent periods and adjusted for statistical outliers. Combined with analyst forecasts where available, this produced a 14.9% growth rate for the projection period. Rather than assuming an abrupt transition to maturity, we model exponential decay to 4.0% terminal growth over 10 years, eliminating the artificial volatility common in standard two-stage DCF models.

Discount Rate (WACC)
We obtained the unlevered beta (1.26) for Software - Infrastructure from Damodaran's industry dataset and re-levered it using Microsoft Corporation's actual capital structure. This company-specific approach, combined with current market risk premiums and Microsoft Corporation's debt profile, resulted in a 8.9% weighted average cost of capital.

Cash Flow Projections
Starting from $323.6B in revenue, we project 14.9% growth through year 5, then exponential tapering to 4.0% terminal growth. With 52.4% EBITDA margins and standard adjustments for capex, working capital, and taxes, terminal year free cash flow reaches $227.0B.

Valuation Interpretation
With market price 24.5% above our calculated intrinsic value, investors are pricing in expectations that exceed our base case assumptions. This could reflect anticipated technology sector tailwinds or margin expansion beyond historical levels. Our terminal value comprises 68% of the total - test whether higher terminal growth or lower WACC justifies current pricing in the interactive model.

All calculations follow standard corporate finance methodology with conservative assumptions.

TOOLS & RESOURCES:

DCF Valuation Model: https://stockoscope.com/stock/msft/value
Run interactive DCF analysis with adjustable assumptions

Business Quality Analysis: https://stockoscope.com/stock/msft/pi...
Ten core business quality pillars revealing performance patterns over time

Peer Comparison: https://stockoscope.com/stock/msft/peers
Compare performance against sector peers with interactive charts

Visual Stock Screener: https://stockoscope.com/screener
Filter 40+ metrics with interactive logo charts

Methodology Deep-Dive: https://blog.stockoscope.com/building...

JOIN THE DISCUSSION:
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ABOUT STOCKOSCOPE:
Stockoscope is a professional stock analysis platform dedicated to investor education. We provide institutional-grade DCF valuations and fundamental analysis tools for all S&P 500 companies, with full transparency into every assumption and calculation.

Our mission: making sophisticated financial analysis accessible and understandable through interactive tools, systematic methodologies, and educational content. Learn by doing, not just watching.

IMPORTANT DISCLAIMERS:
This is educational content only, not investment advice. DCF models are sensitive to assumptions and your results may vary. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Always conduct your own research and consider consulting a financial advisor for personalized advice. Stockoscope does not provide investment recommendations.

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