The Rise of China as a Global Power

Описание: 1. Introduction: The Vision of a "Chinese Century"
The "Chinese Century" (中国世纪, Zhōngguó shìjì), a term that evokes the prediction of the geoeconomic and geopolitical dominance of the People's Republic of China in the 21st century, is a central theme in global discussions. This concept, compared to the "American Century" of the 20th century, is based on the expectation that the Chinese economy will surpass that of the United States, becoming the world's largest. Although some analysts, such as Joseph Stiglitz, believe the "Chinese Century" began as early as 2014, or The Economist, who dates it to China's GDP at purchasing power parity since 2013, there are also critical voices questioning the narrative of unstoppable growth, highlighting the internal and external challenges China faces.

2. The Belt and Road Initiative (BRI): Infrastructure, Trade, and Global Influence
The Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), also known as "One Belt One Road" (OBOR) or the "New Silk Road," is a global infrastructure development strategy launched by the Chinese government in 2013. It represents a cornerstone of Xi Jinping's foreign policy, aiming to invest in over 150 countries and international organizations to promote economic development and interregional connectivity.

Objectives and Structure: The BRI is composed of two main components:

The Silk Road Economic Belt: Overland routes for road and rail transport across Central Asia, along historic trade routes. It includes six urban development corridors, including the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) and the New Eurasian Bridge.
21st Century Maritime Silk Road: Indo-Pacific maritime routes through Southeast Asia, South Asia, the Middle East, and Africa, focused on the development of ports and logistics hubs. One example is the port of Trieste in Italy, which serves as a crucial hub for connections with Central Europe.
Financing: BRI financing comes from several Chinese sources, including:

Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB): A development bank dedicated to lending for infrastructure projects, initially linked to the BRI and subsequently expanded.
Silk Road Fund: A fund with total capital of $40 billion, investing in infrastructure, resource development, and industrial cooperation.
China Investment Corporation and Policy Banks: Support the BRI through long-term investments and financing.
Expected Economic Impacts: World Bank studies estimate that the BRI could increase trade flows in participating countries by 4.1%, reduce global trade costs by 1.1% to 2.2%, and increase the GDP of developing countries in East Asia and the Pacific by an average of 2.6% to 3.9%. The Center for Economics and Business Research projects a global GDP increase of $7.1 trillion annually by 2040.

Strengths and Weaknesses:

Support: Numerous countries, including over 140 current members, support the BRI for its potential to stimulate economic growth, particularly in developing countries, by offering opportunities to bridge the "infrastructure gap."
Criticism and Controversy: The BRI has received criticism for alleged human rights violations, environmental impacts, and accusations of "debt-trap diplomacy" that would lead to neocolonialism and economic imperialism. However, research such as that of Deborah Brautigam and Meg Rithmire disputes the idea of ​​an intentional "debt trap," highlighting the willingness of Chinese banks to restructure loans and the absence of asset seizures. The collapse of the roof of the Novi Sad railway station in Serbia in 2024, renovated with BRI support, raised questions about project quality and procurement transparency.
Evolution and New Components: The BRI is a flexible strategy that adapts to changing needs. Examples include:

Health Silk Road (HSR): Launched during the COVID-19 pandemic, it aims to improve healthcare infrastructure and international cooperation in the healthcare sector.
Digital Silk Road: Announced in 2015, it focuses on digital technology development, digital standards, and the expansion of digital infrastructure, reducing China's dependence on Western technology. This initiative, however, has also been criticized as a means of exporting China's system of mass surveillance and censorship.
Green Silk Road: In response to environmental concerns, China has emphasized sustainable development and "ecological civilization," increasing investment in clean energy such as solar, wind, and hydroelectric power. Despite this, fossil fuel-related projects, such as coal-fired power plants in Pakistan and Indonesia, persist.