New Sherpa: Can Vijay's TVK secure a 35 percent vote share to defeat DMK and AIADMK?

Описание: In a detailed analysis of the upcoming elections, experts discuss the potential impact of Vijay's political party, TVK, on the established Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK) and AIADMK. The New Sherpa context highlights three distinct electoral scenarios based on vote share percentages.


In the first scenario, a 50 percent dent to the DMK could allow TVK to reach 145 seats. A second scenario projects that a 60 percent cut into the DMK and a 30 percent cut into the AIADMK could bring TVK to 159 seats, assuming a 35 percent overall vote share. The third scenario explores an equal 40 percent reduction in both major parties' vote shares, potentially yielding 139 seats for TVK. Political analyst Amitabh Tiwari notes that while achieving a 35 percent vote share in a triangular contest is highly improbable, it remains the essential threshold for TVK to secure an outright victory.

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