2014 Midterm Election Countdown: ISIS, Senate and Governor races, and surprising polls

Описание: Due to ISIS and the Ukraine-Russia conflict, are Americans’ views on foreign policy changing, and could that have an effect on this fall’s elections? We look at that plus Senate Democrats' chances, Governors' races around the country, and some poll numbers that might surprise you.

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Partial transcript:

Are Americans’ views on foreign policy changing, and could that have an effect on this fall’s elections? We’ll talk about this and much more with AEI Resident Fellow Michael Barone on this episode of Election Countdown.

Since the ISIS beheadings, the polls have been showing that Americans are now more hawkish on foreign policy than they have been in recent years. On top of that, President Obama’s ratings on handling foreign policy have fallen as well. The latest CBS/New York Times poll finds that just 34 percent approve of Obama’s handling of foreign policy, while 58 percent disapprove. With us this week to talk about this and to give us his election preview is AEI Resident Fellow Michael Barone. Michael is a senior political analyst for the Washington Examiner, and he is the principal co-author of the Almanac of American Politics. Michael, thank you for being here.

A Public Opinion Shift on Foreign Policy
Since we’re here to talk about what this opinion shift on foreign policy could be, let’s take a look at a few states in which this shift could end up making a difference: Iowa, Wisconsin, and Minnesota. The Democratic voters in these states tend to be more dovish. Do you think it’s possible that in these states, Democrats might see lower turnout if foreign policy continues to be a hot topic? Or on the contrary, could more Democrats turn out as a backlash against the more hawkish ad that Republicans are now running?
So President Obama’s ratings on foreign policy are really terrible these days. Do you think those ratings have reached their lowest point, and do you think he could turn them around before November?

President Obama’s ratings are not looking so hot these days, but neither are many Senate Democrats. There are 7 Senate seats held by Democrats in states that went for Mitt Romney in 2012. Three of those states look like they’ll definitely be Republican pickups: South Dakota, West Virginia, and Montana. In the other 4 states, the Democratic incumbents are all currently polling around 45 percent: Arkansas, Louisiana, Alaska, and North Carolina.
So Michael, what’s your prediction: which of these seats are most likely to be picked up by the GOP?
There have been some rumblings in the past few days that perhaps a GOP-controlled Senate is not a lock. Would you still guess that Republicans will take the Senate this fall?

Midwestern Governors and Labor Unions
Now let’s turn to governors—in particular, the governors of Wisconsin, Michigan. and Ohio. Scott Walker, Rick Snyder, and John Kasich are ball up for reelection this year, and all are known for taking on labor unions in their respective states. Walker and Snyder are locked in extremely close races, while Kasich appears poised for victory, but in large part because his opponent, Ed FitzGerald, has been a pretty weak candidate.
How much of a role are the labor union fights playing in these races, and are these signs that it’s extremely difficult to take on the unions and win?
And it’s never too early to think about 2016. Kasich’s name has been discussed as a presidential candidate. If he’s reelected this year, will he become a real presidential possibility for the GOP?

OK, let’s get back to 2014. There have been a couple of polls recently that have been more than a little surprising. In particular, I want to look at the Illinois Senate race. Dick Durbin, the second-highest ranking Democrat in the Senate, is running against Jim Oberweis. One recent poll had Durbin up just 7 points, and then a Chicago Tribune poll last week had Durbin up 23 points.
So which is it: Is Durbin cruising to an easy victory, or could he have more of a challenge on his hands?
Should we be taking all polls these days with a grain of salt?

2014 Midterm Election Countdown: ISIS, Senate Democrats, Governor races, and surprising polls