MAN: Building an open source model to understand future demand in CKD/KRT pathways - 05/03/2026

Описание: MAN Huddle: 05/03/2026
Topic: Building an open source model to understand future demand in CKD/KRT pathways
with Strategy Unit colleagues

In this session we will introduce our renal demand and capacity model (Kidney-SCOPE) and how we are developing it using the principles of open-science.

Kidney-SCOPE is a hybrid simulation model for use in understanding the required capacity for renal services in the future under no-change and intervention scenarios. The model is novel in its use of system dynamics (SD) to represent the progression of (CKD) combined with the use of discrete event simulation (DES) to mimic patient pathways in kidney replacement therapy (KRT). The combination of models allows us to investigate the impact of interventions in both the upstream (i.e. prevention and new medications) and downstream (i.e. increase in home dialysis) models.

Since October 2025 we have been redeveloping the original DES component of Kidney-SCOPE to make it available open-source using the simPy package in Python. We would like to use this session to reflect upon what we've learnt from the process and share what has and hasn't worked well.

Disclaimer - we have now released version 1 of the model on GitHub but it is still under development as we receive feedback from the renal centres we're working with.

What you will learn:
• about hybrid simulation modelling for chronic conditions
• the approach from commercial to open-source modelling

Who is this session for?
• Anyone with an interest in simulation, it won't be too technical so this should be of interest to a broad audience which could include commissioners, clinicians and any decision-makers who are interested in this topic
• Anyone specifically interested in open-source modelling and inter-disciplinary working