Europe's Green Suicide: The Deindustrialization of a Continent

Описание: This analysis outlines the structural deindustrialization of Europe, driven by self-inflicted energy policy.
Key Factors:
1. Energy Price Crisis: Deliberate shift from cheap pipeline gas to expensive LNG creates a chronic price disadvantage. European gas (TTF) is projected at 3-5x US prices (Henry Hub).
2. Industrial Collapse: Uncompetitive energy costs force shutdowns in chemical, steel, and fertilizer sectors. Gas demand has structurally declined by nearly 100 BCM since 2021, indicating permanent capacity loss.
3. Regulatory Burden: Policies like the Green Pact and the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) accelerate economic strain and fragment global trade.
4. Financial Unsustainability: Multi-trillion dollar transition costs are financed by debt, while the industrial tax base erodes.
5. Geopolitical Dependence: Energy sovereignty is lost to LNG exporters like the US and Qatar.
6. Economic Stagnation: Germany's low GDP growth (0.8% forecast) signals a structural crisis, not a cyclical downturn.

Summarizes the decline of German and European industrial competitiveness due to radical decarbonization policies and the resulting energy crisis.

Main Claim: The European Union's rapid, ideologically driven decarbonization policies, particularly in Germany, have resulted in a self-inflicted energy crisis, leading to chronic, uncompetitive energy prices, structural deindustrialization, and a profound erosion of global economic power.

Logic:
1. Energy Price Disparity: The voluntary dismantling of reliable, cheap pipeline gas supply (a foundation of the industrial base) and the shift to volatile, expensive liquefied natural gas (LNG) resulted in European gas prices (TTF) being projected at $14 per unit, three to five times higher than US prices (Henry Hub, $3.25).
2. Industrial Collapse (Demand Destruction): This chronic price premium makes energy-intensive industries (chemicals, steel, aluminum, fertilizers) uneconomical, forcing production cuts, plant closures, and permanent capacity loss. This is quantified by a structural decline in European gas demand of nearly 100 billion cubic meters (BCM) below 2021 levels, representing measurable industrial shrinkage.
3. Policy Overreach (Regulatory Burden): Despite the economic crisis, the EU is accelerating the Green Pact and imposing complex regulatory tools like the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM). CBAM forces foreign exporters to adhere to EU carbon standards, creating massive compliance burdens, particularly for developing nations, and contributing to global trade fragmentation.
4. Financial Strain: The cost of the energy transition requires enormous, multi-trillion dollar capital investments, which are being financed through massive debt accrual. This occurs simultaneously with the erosion of the industrial tax base, creating a double financial and industrial strain that is structurally unsustainable.
5. Geopolitical Shift: The European energy crisis has structurally benefited pragmatic energy exporters, primarily the US and Qatar, who have become the dominant LNG suppliers, resulting in a long-term geopolitical shift in European energy dependence and a compromise of energy sovereignty.
6. Economic Outcome: The combination of high energy costs and regulatory weight is reflected in critically low GDP growth forecasts for Germany (0.8% for 2024), signaling structural deindustrialization rather than a cyclical slowdown.