AI Valuations: The New Railway Mania?
Автор: Economic Pattern Vault
Загружено: 2026-01-20
Просмотров: 0
Описание:
In 1850, British railway companies collapsed despite building revolutionary technology. In 2000, dot-com companies failed while the internet succeeded. Now in 2026, AI valuations show the same pattern: $1.15 trillion in infrastructure spending, foundation models at 70x revenue, and 90% of executives reporting no measurable productivity gains.
This breakdown examines three historical market patterns where transformative technology succeeded but early investors didn't. We analyze OpenAI's $500B valuation against $12B revenue, the $600B annual infrastructure spend by hyperscalers, energy grid constraints limiting physical deployment, and why 80% of AI companies are reselling commodity services.
The question isn't whether AI will transform knowledge work—it will. The question is whether current valuations accurately price the timeline, adoption curve, and unit economics of that transformation.
No predictions. Just patterns.
TIMESTAMPS:
0:00 The Railway Pattern
2:14 Dot-Com Parallel
3:45 AI Valuations 2026
6:22 The Hidden Pattern
9:17 Energy Constraints
11:03 Market Structure
13:25 Key Takeaway
Economic Pattern Vault breaks down financial history to understand how markets work by studying how they fail.
#AI #MarketHistory #InvestingPatterns #TechBubble #FinancialHistory
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