India’s 2026 Security Outlook: The New Rules of Power

Описание: India’s national security landscape in 2026 has hardened as instability grows across its borders and beyond. Renewed U.S. protectionism and its proximity to Pakistan under Donald Trump unsettles long-held assumptions about crisis restraint on India’s western front. China continues to compress India’s strategic space through calibrated pressure along the Line of Actual Control and an expanding naval presence across the Indian Ocean.

The spectre of instability in India’s east, brought about by the violence and the rapid spread of disorder in Bangladesh, only adds to these complications. In addition, China’s leverage and control over critical minerals and rare earths, which are indispensable for missiles, electronics, and aerospace platforms, have emerged as a critical concern. All this unfolds within an increasingly multipolar world where power, not norms, dictates outcomes.

This edition of National Security Dialogue, therefore, explores the choices available to India to protect its sovereignty, deter coercion, and preserve strategic autonomy under sustained pressure.

Questions in the discussion:

How would India secure its maritime and continental frontiers in this volatile region without surrendering strategic autonomy?

What are India’s options vis-à-vis the US, especially when Washington courts Pakistan while preaching regional stability?

How should India deter China, both at the LAC and in the Indian Ocean, especially when the PLA operates below the threshold of war?

Will critical minerals and rare earths become chokepoints in future conflicts? What are New Delhi’s options?

Panellists

Rachel Rizzo
Senior Fellow, Strategic Studies Programme, Observer Research Foundation, India

Air Marshal (Dr) Diptendu Choudhury
Former Commandant, NDC

Atul Kumar
Fellow, Observer Research Foundation, India

Sreeradha Dutta
Professor, International Affairs, OP Jindal Global University, India

Moderator

Ajay Bisaria
Distinguished Fellow, Observer Research Foundation, India