Severe Weather Outbreak Live Coverage - Major Tornadoes, Extreme Damaging Winds, Supercells

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Severe Weather Outbreak Live Coverage - Major Tornadoes, Extreme Damaging Winds, Supercells


In today's Livestream I will be bringing you live Radar Coverage for the Outbreak Today.

We have a Moderate risk of severe weather today, this rating is the second highest the SPC gives out.

We have very elevated shear today, along side very unusual instability above 1,000 Cape for this time of year.
I'm expecting imbedded supercells today with a chance of Major tornadoes, Our biggest threat though is the damaging winds, the SPC has indicated a 45% chance of damaging winds within the moderate risk region.

Currently a tornado outbreak of some sort seems very possible and we could see a few major tornadoes throughout but not limited to Iowa and Minnesota.

I'm especially worried about Omaha, Des Moines, Rochester, Waterloo, Council Bluffs, Ames, Cedar Falls, Mankato, Minneapolis, St. Paul, Lincoln, Sioux City, La Crosse, Eagan, Bloomington, Plymouth, and many more towns and cities.

Latest from the SPC -

...Mid-MO to Upper MS Valley...
Primary changes with this outlook cycle are to expand severe
probabilities westward in the central Great Plains, as well as add a
significant tornado hatched area. Have maintained a Moderate Risk
for the corridor of greatest derecho potential centered on this
evening.

An intense, negative-tilt shortwave trough near the Four Corners
region will progress across the central High Plains this afternoon
into the Mid-MO Valley this evening. Attendant surface cyclone will
deepen along a similar path and reach the MN Arrowhead overnight.
Extreme low to mid-level wind fields will accompany this system in
addition to intense large-scale ascent.

Upper 50s to lower 60s surface dew points are prevalent across MO
and eastern KS with mid 60s farther south in eastern OK and AR.
Boundary-layer moisture advection will be maintained beneath a
pronounced capping inversion/EML as sampled by the 12Z SGF and TOP
soundings. Plentiful surface heating near and west of the KS/NE
dryline should boost MLCAPE to around 1000 J/kg across the Mid-MO
Valley. Within the exit region of the intense mid-level jet,
initially low-topped convection should deepen across eastern NE in
the mid to late afternoon. A growing arc of moderate-topped
convection should sweep across the Mid-MO Valley, impinging on the
peak buoyancy plume. This arc will race east-northeast into the
Upper MS Valley before eventually outpacing the surface-based
buoyancy plume as it approaches the western Great Lakes tonight.

As the low-level jet deepens to at least 70-80 kt, hodograph
curvature ahead of the convective line will be favorable for
embedded supercells and QLCS mesovortices with 0-1 km SRH of 300-400
m2/s2. This should result in potential for at least a few tornadoes,
mainly after sunset. One or two of these may be strong, particularly
across western to northern IA and southeast MN. This threat appears
unprecedented for this region this late in the year.

Otherwise, where moderate-topped convection occurs, downdrafts will
aid in widespread 50-65 kt surface gusts given the exceptional wind
fields. Embedded supercells/mesovortices should support a threat for
occasional 65-85 kt wind gusts as well. While buoyancy will diminish
with northeast extent and in time tonight, the intense wind fields
and resultant robust forcing for ascent may result in convectively
augmented severe gusts persisting into areas of greater low-level
stability towards Lake Superior/Michigan.

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