BTC Smack Down From Higher High - Bear Flag Intact

Описание: BTC closed down about 4% and fell below the daily TBO cloud, flipping from bullish consolidation back to strong bearish. The close short from earlier this week played out exactly as expected with a pullback to the fast line at $69,215. Never chase a close short, wait for the retrace.

The sell-off was driven by poor S&P performance, weak non-farm payroll numbers, and oil pushing higher. A 4% move only produced $1.5 billion in volume on Binance, surprisingly low. The selling isn't panic-level yet, but that doesn't mean we're done going lower.

Bear flag fully intact. Higher lows and higher highs, and another test of $64,680-$65,000 support would seal the deal. On the 4H, breakouts near the top were exhaustion breakouts, invalidated by a TBO close long Friday night.

ETH down 4.54%, back below the cloud, 4H close long printed. Volume wasn't strong enough to touch the moving average. News-driven, not momentum-driven. Weekly RSI for both BTC and ETH got knocked back before resetting. Still expecting both to go a lot lower.

Stablecoin dominance snapped above the cloud but has a close short, so a 2% retrace would be positive short-term. Total market cap printed exhaustion breakouts then a close long.

TradFi is the real story. S&P futures closed below the weekly cloud for the first time since April, similar setup to March 2025 before a 17% drop. SPX confirmed open short, slow line target $5,551, roughly 17.5% lower. Dow inside the weekly cloud. NASDAQ strong bearish. VIX at 29.48 with a TBO breakout, historically only happens before serious pain. NVIDIA open short from $181. Tesla weekly close long. Nikkei down 3% with two close longs. Hang Seng weekly close long. UK oil up 10%, gold bullish, uranium close long.

My picks: PI outlier pushing toward $0.2841. UNI still has an open close short. VIRTUAL tagged the fast line, potential entry zone. WLFI strong bearish, down 19%. TRUMP heading for $3.02. BNB, XMR, HYPE, DOT, TAO, NEAR, ASTER, ICP, SKY, NIGHT, and MORPHO all flashing close longs on the 4H. XPL exhaustion breakouts then 8% dump. RIVER lower highs, heading down.

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*Disclaimer: I am not a financial advisor, and none of the information presented in this video should be considered financial advice. All content shared is for educational purposes only. Please conduct your own research and consult with a professional before making any financial decisions.