If the President’s Party Loses the Midterms, Does Gold Go Up? I Checked 13 Elections.

Описание: The midterms are on November 3rd. If the president's party loses, does gold go up? I checked 13 midterm elections back to 1974 using a public monthly gold price series.

What I found:
• In 11 of the 13 midterms, the president's party lost House seats. Gold rose in 6 of those years and fell in 5, averaging +2.0% from October to December. A random 2 months averages +1.4%
• November to December: up 8 times out of 11, average +1.4%
• Three months later: +2.2% on average
• Big losses (30+ seats, 5 cases): +5.4% on average, 4 of 5 up, but 1974 (+15.7%) drives it
• Only 2 midterms where the president's party gained seats (1998 and 2002): −1.4% and +4.7%. Two cases tell you nothing
• Takeaway: losing is the normal case, so the loss itself is not a trading signal

Timestamps
0:00 Midterms and gold
0:29 What I tested
0:56 The results
1:17 Disclaimer
1:27 The catch
1:54 Big losses
2:23 When the party gained seats
2:41 This year
3:10 What the data says

Sources: public monthly gold price series (datasets/gold-prices, 1974 to Sep 2026; monthly averages, not daily closes). The president's approval (reported record low 31%) is from news reports (Reuters/Ipsos via Al Jazeera, Oct 19), not my data.

Disclaimer: This is my own analysis of past data and personal opinion. It is not financial advice. Past results do not predict the future.

#gold #midterms #goldprice #goldanalysis #fed