The CFO Case for Probabilistic Forecasting With AI | Bruno Annicq

Описание: In this episode of Run the Numbers, CJ sits down with Bruno Annicq, CFO of Wellhub (formerly Gympass), to unpack a practical finance playbook built around cash discipline, sustainable growth, and simplicity. Bruno explains how he rebuilt forecasting using an AI-driven, probabilistic ensemble model, moving teams beyond single-scenario planning. They also dig into his EMPOWER planning framework, usable OKRs, and why tighter alignment between finance, HR, and wellbeing is becoming a durable lever for long-term performance.

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SPONSORS:

RightRev is an automated revenue recognition platform built for modern pricing models like usage-based pricing, bundles, and mid-cycle upgrades. RightRev lets companies scale monetization without slowing down close or compliance. For RevRec that keeps growth moving, visit https://www.rightrev.com

Rillet is an AI-native ERP built for modern finance teams that want to close faster without fighting legacy systems. Designed to support complex revenue recognition, multi-entity operations, and real-time reporting, Rillet helps teams achieve a true zero-day close—with some customers closing in hours, not days. If you’re scaling on an ERP that wasn’t built in the 90s, book a demo at https://www.rillet.com/cj

Tabs is an AI-native revenue platform that unifies billing, collections, and revenue recognition for companies running usage-based or complex contracts. By bringing together ERP, CRM, and real product usage data into a single system of record, Tabs eliminates manual reconciliations and speeds up close and cash collection. Companies like Cortex, Statsig, and Cursor trust Tabs to scale revenue efficiently. Learn more at https://www.tabs.com/run

Abacum is a modern FP&A platform built by former CFOs to replace slow, consultant-heavy planning tools. With self-service integrations and AI-powered workflows for forecasting, variance analysis, and scenario modeling, Abacum helps finance teams scale without becoming software admins. Trusted by teams at Strava, Replit, and JG Wentworth—learn more at https://www.abacum.ai

Brex is an intelligent finance platform that combines corporate cards, built-in expense management, and AI agents to eliminate manual finance work. By automating expense reviews and reconciliations, Brex gives CFOs more time for the high-impact work that drives growth. Join 35,000+ companies like Anthropic, Coinbase, and DoorDash at https://www.brex.com/metrics

Metronome is real-time billing built for modern software companies. Metronome turns raw usage events into accurate invoices, gives customers bills they actually understand, and keeps finance, product, and engineering perfectly in sync. That’s why category-defining companies like OpenAI and Anthropic trust Metronome to power usage-based pricing and enterprise contracts at scale. Focus on your product — not your billing. Learn more and get started at https://www.metronome.com

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LINKS:
Bruno on LinkedIn:   / bannicq  
Wellhub: https://wellhub.com/
CJ on LinkedIn:   / cj-gustafson-13140948  
Mostly metrics: https://www.mostlymetrics.com

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TIMESTAMPS:
00:00:00 Preview and Intro
00:02:19 Sponsors — RightRev, Rillet, Tabs
00:06:43 Accidental CFO Origin Story
00:07:34 Consulting to Operations Pivot
00:08:12 Why Finance Clicked for Bruno
00:09:28 McKinsey Prioritization in Real World
00:10:02 Eisenhower Matrix and Prioritization
00:11:08 Investing in Non-Urgent Work
00:13:30 Lessons From AOL Reinvention
00:16:10 Sponsors — Abacum, Brex, Metronome
00:20:01 Career Growth Through Hard Problems
00:20:52 Broadening Skills Through Change
00:23:12 Five Core Finance Principles
00:24:02 Cash Is King
00:25:14 Driving Sustainable Growth
00:26:01 No Surprises and Forecasting
00:26:07 Finance as Business Enabler
00:27:22 Less Is More Philosophy
00:28:47 Hardest Principle: Less Is More
00:29:46 Deterministic vs Probabilistic Forecasting
00:31:11 Marketplace Volatility and Forecast Error
00:32:10 Ensemble Models Explained
00:33:37 Forecast Accuracy Gains
00:34:53 Building Models In-House
00:36:46 Why Explainability Matters
00:37:48 Empower Framework Introduction
00:47:47 Urgency, Compounding, Long-Term Thinking
00:48:10 Advice to Younger Self
00:50:06 Finance Stack and Expense Stories
00:52:51 Credits

#runthenumberspodcast #cfo #financeleadership #forecasting #aiinfinance