EPISODE 26 | The Aviation Market Is Breaking in Two: Why Some Aircraft Are Holding Value...

Описание: Podcast: The Truth About the Aviation Market
Host: Jason Zilberbrand, President of VREF

For years, people talked about the “aircraft market” as if it were a single thing.

• Values rose together
• Values fell together
• And broad headlines were enough to describe what was happening.

That era is over.

In the first quarter of 2026, aircraft values are no longer moving in one cycle. The market has fragmented. Some aircraft remain highly liquid with stable or rising values. Others are quietly losing pricing power as lifecycle costs catch up with them.

In this quarterly update episode of The Truth About the Market, Jason breaks down what the Q1 data actually shows — not the headlines, not the sentiment, but the structural forces now driving valuation divergence across the global fleet.

The theme of this market is discipline. Buyers are still active. Financing still exists. Transactions are still happening.

But they’re happening with far more scrutiny, far more underwriting precision, and far greater focus on lifecycle economics than we’ve seen in the past decade.

In This Episode, You’ll Discover

• Why aircraft values are no longer moving in a unified cycle across the fleet
• The four structural variables now determining whether an aircraft holds value or erodes
• Why late-model aircraft (0–7 years old) remain the most insulated segment of the market
• How OEM production backlogs are continuing to compress supply in the pre-owned market
• The hidden valuation shift happening in mid-life aircraft between 8 and 15 years old
• Why maintenance status—not age—is now determining mid-life aircraft pricing
• The lifecycle pressures accelerating depreciation in aircraft over 20 years old
• How modernization costs are forcing buyers to compare legacy aircraft against newer alternatives
• The surprising divergence between shrinking inventory and slower transaction closings
• What a 43% drop in closed transactions really means for market discipline
• Why light jets are outperforming while turboprops are seeing selective softness
• The specific aircraft models currently absorbing the most liquidity in the market
• How rising interest rates permanently changed aircraft acquisition psychology
• The growing role of tariffs and import duties in aircraft purchase math
• The new ownership demographics entering business aviation and how they influence buying cycles
• Why hybrid ownership strategies like charter enrollment and leaseback structures are increasing
• The macro forces still supporting aircraft values as we move through 2026
• Why seasonal flying demand historically creates a Q2–Q3 transaction tailwind
• And where each major aircraft segment is likely headed for the remainder of the year

The Bottom Line

The aviation market isn’t weakening…it’s maturing.

• Late-model aircraft continue to benefit from constrained supply and modern capability
• Mid-life aircraft are entering a maintenance-driven valuation divide
• Legacy fleets are being repriced to reflect lifecycle reality.

At the same time, financing discipline, capital costs, and technological expectations are reshaping how buyers evaluate aircraft entirely. This isn’t a downturn, it’s segmentation. And the owners, lenders, and operators who understand that segmentation will be best positioned to navigate the market ahead.

For accurate, defensible aircraft valuations trusted by lenders, insurers, and professionals worldwide, visit VREF.com.

Fly safe. Stay smart.