Get Ready For "Stagflation Lite" | Cameron Dawson

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Citing a current macro landscape of lower economic growth, sticky inflation and rising unemployment, today's guest has recently declared we've entered a "stagflation lite" period.

How long will it last?

And how should investors position accordingly?

To find out, we're fortunate to welcome Cameron Dawson, Chief Investment Officer at NewEdge Wealth, back to the program today.

Follow Cameron on LinkedIn at   / cameron-dawson-cfa-89754b22  

X at @CameronDawson

Or at her website at https://www.newedgewealth.com/

#stagflation #artificialintelligence #unemployment

0:00 - Defining Stagflation Light: Lighter Than 1970s, Sticky Inflation
2:25 - Historical Stagflation: Loose Policy, Exogenous Shocks Like Tariffs
3:52 - Q2 Stat: AI Capex greater than Consumer Contribution to GDP
4:52 - Circular Reference: Economy Mirrors Narrow AI/Market Reliance
5:25 - K-Shaped Extremes: MAG7 Earnings Up, Equal-Weight Down
6:46 - Top 10% Drives 50% Consumption: Weighted vs. Average Consumer
8:13 - AI Circular Flows: Vendor Financing Echoes Dot-Com
9:14 - Capex Cycle Inevitability: Infrastructure ≠ Applications
11:45 - Bubble Types: Valuations (2000/2021) vs. Earnings (Corning '90s)
12:53 - Overearning Signals: Big Deals as Proof, Market Ignores
14:24 - Risk Management: Diversify, Low Leverage, Avoid Central Trends
15:55 - Indicators: Earnings-Price Divergences, Options Complacency
18:28 - S&P to 7,000 EOY: 2026 Moon-Pricing Challenges
21:49 - Competition Erosion: China/DeepSeek Commoditizes Margins
27:16 - Disruptions Unresolved: Jobs, Energy Bills, Societal Obsolescence
29:07 - Energy Opportunity: Infrastructure Diversifier (9-12% Returns)
33:50 - Extremes Unsustainable: "Fourth Turning," Spillover Risks
42:38 - Tariffs Incomplete: Margins Absorb, Q3 Earnings Test
46:29 - Stagflation Light Nuance: Jobless Recovery Possible
52:50 - Historical Pattern: Fed Cuts + Rising Unemployment → Recession
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