A Scientist Shows the Odds of Asteroid Apophis Striking Earth Higher than Thought

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In a recent study published in The Planetary Science Journal, astrophysicist Paul Wiegert from the University of Western Ontario explores the potential for asteroid 99942 Apophis to collide with Earth. While previous assessments had ruled out an impact in the foreseeable future, Wiegert's analysis considers the scenario where a smaller asteroid could strike Apophis, altering its trajectory.​

His findings suggest that an object as small as 0.6 meters could potentially shift Apophis onto a collision course with Earth. However, the likelihood of such an event remains extremely low, estimated at approximately 1 in 2 billion. Even if such a collision occurred, the chance of Apophis subsequently impacting Earth is about 1 in 1 million.​

Apophis, discovered in 2004, initially garnered attention due to its high rating on the Torino impact hazard scale. It is set to make a close approach to Earth in 2029, with subsequent flybys in 2036 and 2068.​

For a more detailed understanding of Wiegert's study and its implications, you can read the full article here: https://phys.org/news/2024-09-odds-as...

Published paper: https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10...

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