Global Economy 2015 - World of Uncertainty, Pitfalls in a Post Crisis World Source

Описание: Steve Roach and Michael Moskow discuss the global economy in the post-financial crisis era. Roach is Non-Executive Chairman of Morgan Stanley Asia, and Moskow is Vice Chairman and Senior Fellow of the Chicago Council on Global Affairs. Roach begins with a lecture about three global imbalances that must be addressed before the world can emerge from the post-financial crisis era: imbalances in demand, supply, and economic policy. The global demand imbalance is caused by countries such as the U.S., which has disproportionate pre-crisis consumer spending levels compared to countries like China and India. After the bubble popped in the U.S., no one filled the consumer void. Roach uses China to illustrate problems in global supply, noting that decreased external demand for China's exports dramatically slowed the country's growth and created a need for increased Chinese consumption. Last, Roach addresses the problems with "quick fix" fiscal, monetary, and currency policies. Moskow and Roach then discuss why and how China will implement a shift from exports to domestic consumer demand and the risks associated with such a change; the risk of inflation in China and the need for interest rate adjustment; China's geopolitical stance on North Korea; and the benefits and risks for Americans investing in China. They talk about the possibility of protectionist legislation in the U.S., and Roach offers his views on current U.S. fiscal and monetary policies, such as quantitative easing. Roach also answers audience questions about China, including the possibility of expanding the social safety net; the art market; the importance of financial stability; and the opportunities for service industry joint ventures with Western multinationals.

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