#MacroMemo
Автор: RBC
Загружено: 2026-01-16
Просмотров: 94
Описание:
Explore the forces shaping today’s investing landscape in this short video:
➡️ U.S. Federal Reserve in flux: With one rate cut priced in for the first half of 2026 and another later in the year, the Fed’s path forward hinges on its future new chair and the direction of inflation. Criminal charges against current Chair Powell add political uncertainty, potentially delaying nominations and amplifying market concerns about Fed independence.
➡️ Venezuela regime change and oil markets: The U.S.-backed ousting of Maduro aims to reclaim oil assets, but near-term instability may reduce Venezuelan oil supply. Heavy-oil producers like Canada could face displacement if U.S. Gulf refineries prioritize Venezuelan crude long term.
➡️ China’s tech ascent: Despite short-term economic headwinds, China dominates critical sectors. Its R&D surge and patent filings signal sustained productivity gains, positioning it as a long-term innovation powerhouse.
➡️ AI CapEx and tariffs: AI investment growth may slow but remains a U.S. economic tailwind, potentially boosting GDP. Meanwhile, U.S. tariffs disproportionately hit businesses over consumers, a divergence from historical patterns.
➡️ Geopolitical shocks: U.S. interventions in the Western Hemisphere could reshape trade blocs and commodity flows, while Iran protests add further volatility.
To read the full transcript: http://spr.ly/6051CFcbS
MacroMémo en francais: http://spr.ly/6052CFcbs
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