Middle East Crises | JET 15 |Mahboob Ali Yousafzai

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Israel’s announcement that its army is pushing further into southern Lebanon should be taken with “caution”, Ali Rizk, a security analyst based in Beirut, has told Al Jazeera.

He added that the statement is not necessarily a “prelude to something major on the ground”.

“We have to remember that when the Israelis resort to these tactics – land confrontations – it costs them very dearly,” Rizk said, adding that that was evident in the 2024 war.

Commenting on Lebanon’s decision to outlaw Hezbollah’s military and security activities, Rizk said that Israel will most likely “wait to see how that decision turns out before they carry out any costly intervention on the ground”.

“If the Lebanese army agrees to disarm Hezbollah by force, the Israelis, ironically, could rely on the Lebanese army as its foot soldiers to carry out that mission, and that’s something which the US envoy to Syria, Tom Barak, stated in one of his interviews, that we want the Lebanese army to fight its own people.

“Now, that’s not necessarily a guaranteed scenario. Judging by the performance of the Lebanese army chief, he’s been very adamant about not entering into a civil war,” he said, noting that the same applies to President Joseph Aoun.

“But that does not apply to the Lebanese PM Nawaf Sarah who appears to be determined to disarm Hezbollah or to confront Hezbollah, whatever the costs involved.

“So until that situation further clarifies, again, I would urge a word of caution in predicting that the Israelis are going to carry out some kind of major land operation.”