IRAN SCENARIOS SECOND FORTNIGHT OF GULF WAR 3.0I Security Risks Asia

Описание: IRAN SCENARIOS SECOND FORTNIGHT OF GULF WAR 3.0
We are now entering the second fortnight of Gulf War 3.0. Gulf War 1.0 was launched in 1991 to evict Iraqi forces from Kuwait,
Gulf War 2.0 in 2003 to evict Saddam Hussein from Iraq and Now Gulf War 3.0.
So how is the war going, what have been the major outcomes so far and what would be the scenarios in the fortnight ahead, Immediate, Offramp and Long Term here is an overview
Firstly, the war objectives. Several objectives have been bandied about in the past fortnight by Israel and the United States.
"The mission of Operation Epic Fury is laser-focused: Destroy Iranian offensive missiles, destroy Iranian missile production, destroy their navy and other security infrastructure – and they will never have nuclear weapons," said Secretary of War Pete Hegseth. These are the military objectives.
His boss US President Donald Trump has spoken about several objectives in the past without any clarity as to what will be the overall political aim.
For Israel the objective has been regime change – a term variously interpreted and one that was unachievable from the very outset for a limited campaign – that was possibly the joint plan.
For Iran the objective was obviously regime survival.
U.S. President Donald Trump told Fox News that the United States plans to strike Iran "very hard over the next week," and that it would escort oil tankers through the Strait of Hormuz if necessary. U.S. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth said Trump will be the one to decide "the pace, tempo and timing" of the Iran conflict. He also said that the United States will not allow the Strait of Hormuz to "remain contested or with a lack of flow of commercial goods."

Iran's Foreign Ministry spokesman Esmaeil Baghaei told Xinhua in a recent interview that Iran is determined to defend itself against the U.S. and Israeli "aggression" as long as it takes.

The Imponderables
Residual combat capability – missiles, drones, air defence munitions with both sides.

Resilience of the Iranian regime.

US willingness to commit ground troops.

Willingness of Iranian minorities for military rebellion.

Iranian people’s willingness to publicly oppose the regime.

Impact of the Horizontal Escalation in the region thus resulting in International and Regional Pressures.

Energy routes through the Persian Gulf and global oil crisis.

Information Flux – Narratives, Misinformation and Disinformation.

Immediate Scenario - Sustenance of the ongoing missile and drone exchange with increasing severity by the United States and Israel while horizontal escalation by Iran could be the most evident scenario in the immediate term.

An attempt by the United States to clear the Persian Gulf is expected to lead to contestations particularly in the Islands held by Iran in this strategic waterway. Even if these are pulverised through severe air bombardment these are unlikely to be safe for international maritime traffic.

Offramp Scenario – An offramp with both sides declaring victory could emerge as an option in case there is a degree of immediate exhaustion in terms of political will and internal and regional support in the United States and possible depletion of missile and drone armoury of Iran.

“The only way to end this war – ignited by the Zionist regime & US – is recognizing Iran’s legitimate rights, payment of reparations, and firm int’l guarantees against future aggression,” Pezeshkian wrote on X.

US President Donald Trump’s visit to China starts on March 31 to April 02
Medium to Long Term – Dismal Scenario for Iran. In the medium to long term, the scenario for Iran is dismal.
With the economy on the brink even prior to the war began and massive destruction of civil infrastructure during the war, there is immense pain for the Iranian people whatever be the configuration of the regime.
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