Michigan’s Winter Outlook 2024-2025

Описание: WINTER OUTLOOK 2024-2025

Temperatures:

We expect near normal to slightly above average temperatures through this winter. This is due mainly in part to the ENSO phase and where it is currently forecasted to go. (Weak La Niña) We will likely NOT be as warm as we were last winter. We still expect multiple chances for arctic air to penetrate southward giving us shots of cold air. The question becomes how long will these shots of cold air last? We currently don’t expect them to be prolonged in nature. This could lead to ‘messy’ systems where we have rain/snow lines setting up across the state.

Precipitation:

We expect precipitation to lean above average for the state. This is due to historical trends within a weak La Niña which favor a more “Michigan precip friendly track” The big question we have with precip is just how cold we are throughout winter. Will it fall as snow? Or will it fall as cold rain? Reverting back to the temperature paragraph above, these “shots” of cold air need to align with when systems move through which would provide us snow. - When all is said and done, above average precip is expected but we are going with near normal snowfall totals across the state.

Other factors considered in this forecast were the MJO, AO, NPO, NAO, ENSO, and historical analog years. We understand that 90% of you have no idea what these are. So we will define them in the comments below for those interested in reading more. Overall, we hope this is simple for you to understand. There are many factors that come into play for winter outlooks. We don’t want to confuse anyone, so we kept it short.


Please note: Averages can fluctuate quite a lot! The amounts shown are NOT a forecast, it is just showing the typical annual snowfall amounts for areas across Michigan.

And as a final note, average temperatures across Michigan range in the upper 20s to low 30s throughout our winter months. So near normal to leaning above average would put them in this range if not a couple degrees higher.

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Explanations:

ENSO stands for El Niño-Southern Oscillation. It is a recurring pattern involving changes in the temperature of waters in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean. The three phases that you're used to hearing are El Nino, above average sea surface temps, La Nina, below average sea surface temps, and La Nada, or neutral, which is average sea surface temps. Each phase has a different impact on our jet stream positioning which then directly influences our temperatures and precipitation patterns.

The Arctic Oscillation is the movement of pressure in the atmosphere between the Arctic and the mid-latitudes of the North Pacific and North Atlantic. Governed by the Jetstream, when the AO is positive, the Jetstream is locked up north and strong, and when the AO is negative, the Jetstream is weaker and shifts south allowing Arctic air further south.

The North Atlantic Oscillation is based on the surface sea-level pressure difference between the Subtropical High and the Subpolar Low. When the NAO is positive and strong, above normal temperatures are usually expected in the eastern U.S. When the NAO is negative and strong, below normal temperatures are usually expected.

Both the Arctic and North Atlantic Oscillation are usually in sync with each other meaning they are both positive or both negative, but can vary in intensity.

When putting all these factors together, we come to conclusion of the forecast above.