State of the Union 2025: A crisis of confidence?

Описание: 10 September 2025
EPC Update

Speakers: Janis A. Emmanouilidis, Deputy Chief Executive & Director of Studies, European Policy Centre; Fabian Zuleeg, Chief Executive & Chief Economist, European Policy Centre

Moderator: Jacki Davis, Senior Adviser, European Policy Centre

This EPC Update took stock of European Commission President von der Leyen’s 2025 State of the Union address, delivered after the first year of her second mandate and a summer of faltering Commission diplomacy. With a productive EU–Japan summit as the lone bright spot, the season was marked by a fruitless EU–China summit and an EU–US trade deal that, while averting the worst of Washington’s tariff threats through significant concessions, has left deep political scars in Brussels and — as shown by Trump’s threats against the EU’s Digital Services Act — proved ineffective, if not counterproductive, in tempering his hostility towards the EU.

Against this backdrop, and amid mounting criticism in several capitals — including her own, where her remarks on the EU’s readiness to deploy post-war troops to Ukraine drew fire —, will President von der Leyen use the address to set a decisive course and effectively tackle the most contentious items on the EU’s agenda? Can she overcome mounting parliamentary resistance to the EU-US trade deal, define the way forward on Ukraine after the Trump–Putin summit, and signal a strong commitment to enlargement timelines for Ukraine, Moldova, and others?

Other pressing challenges loom: widening divisions among member states over potential retaliatory measures against Israel for breaches of the EU–Israel Association Agreement; the need to build consensus on the 2028–2034 Multiannual Financial Framework; and the task of rallying hesitant member states behind a more assertive global economic strategy, including efforts to diversify trade partnerships at a time when major deals such as EU–Mercosur remain unratified.