Capital Wars, AI, and the New Economic Order

Описание: Episode Description: In this episode, we synthesize the latest strategic outlooks from some of the world’s most influential investors—Ray Dalio, Howard Marks, Bruce Flatt, and the leadership at Bridgewater Associates. We explore how the global economy is transitioning from an era of globalization to “Modern Mercantilism,” the massive inflationary pressures of the AI capital expenditure boom, and why billionaires are looking at gold and real assets to protect against the “Capital War.”


Show Notes & Key Takeaways:


1. The Shift to “Modern Mercantilism” The global order is undergoing a once-in-a-century shift. Bridgewater’s Co-CIOs and Ray Dalio describe a move away from efficiency-focused globalization toward “Modern Mercantilism,” where countries prioritize self-sufficiency, national security, and wealth accumulation,.


• The 5 Forces: Ray Dalio outlines five converging forces shaping this volatility: debt/money creation, internal political conflict, changing world order (geopolitics), acts of nature, and technology,.


• Capital Wars: We are moving beyond trade wars into “capital wars,” where the monetary order itself is challenged, and nations may weaponize capital flows.


2. The AI Arms Race & The Physical Economy Artificial Intelligence is not just a software story; it is a massive “resource grab” for physical assets.


• Infrastructure Bottlenecks: Bruce Flatt (Brookfield) argues that the bottleneck for AI over the next decade isn’t code, but power and data centers. He highlights the critical need for nuclear energy and the “electrification of everything”,.


• The CAPEX Boom: Bridgewater’s Greg Jensen notes that we are entering a phase of exponential spending where the risk of “underinvesting” is seen as greater than overinvesting, creating a potentially inflationary boom in the physical economy,.


3. The Future of the Dollar & Gold With the weaponization of the financial system and concerns over US fiscal profligacy, the role of the dollar is being questioned.


• Dedollarization: While the dollar remains dominant in transactions, central banks are increasingly diversifying into gold to hold assets outside the US financial system,.


• Gold as a Safe Haven: Gold is being viewed not just as a hedge against inflation, but as a hedge against conflict and the confiscation of wealth,.


4. Howard Marks on the “Sea Change” Oaktree’s Howard Marks argues that the defining feature of the last 40 years—declining interest rates—is over.


• The End of Easy Money: We have moved from a period of “flawless” optimism to a more precarious market where money is no longer free. Marks warns that borrowers and lenders, not central planners, should set interest rates,.


• Risk vs. Volatility: Marks reminds investors that volatility is not risk; risk is the probability of permanent loss. In a high-interest-rate environment, the “easy” wins of the last decade will be harder to come by,.


Quotes for Social Media:


• “The risk of underinvesting is dramatically greater than the risk of overinvesting.” — Sundar Pichai (quoted by Bridgewater)


• “It’s only when the tide goes out that we find out who’s swimming naked.” — Howard Marks


• “Whoever wins the technology war will win the military geopolitical war.” — Ray Dalio


This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit dhruva.substack.com/subscribe (https://dhruva.substack.com/subscribe...)