Future Heat Risks Could Redefine Summer Olympics Host Cities

Описание: The Paris Olympics opened with rain, followed by blistering heat and a week of pleasant sunshine. As the Games approach their conclusion on Sunday, temperatures are expected to soar again up to 95 degrees Fahrenheit (35 degrees Celsius). This variability underscores the uncertainty of Summer Olympics weather.

Extreme heat is increasingly jeopardizing elite athletes' health, with rising instances of heat exhaustion and heatstroke as fossil fuel pollution elevated temperatures and humidity. Spectators, particularly those from cooler climates, are also at risk.

According to an analysis by CarbonPlan, a climate science and analytics nonprofit, many cities worldwide may soon be unable to host the Summer Games during summer due to surpassing safe heat thresholds. Heat stress, measured by wet-bulb globe temperature—a combination of heat, humidity, windspeed, sun angle, and cloud cover—shows that by 2050, almost all cities in the eastern U.S. will exceed the 82.1-degree Fahrenheit limit, beyond which experts recommend canceling sporting events. This indicates that hosting the Summer Games in these locations would pose significant health risks for athletes.

The Gulf Coast states, including Florida and eastern Texas, would be similarly unfeasible, making a repeat of the 1996 Atlanta Games unlikely. Eastern China, including Beijing and Shanghai, as well as Hong Kong and much of Southeast Asia, would also be above the safe limit.

Calls to shift the Summer Olympics timing to avoid peak heat are growing. Past examples include Sydney, which held the 2000 Games in September and October during the Southern Hemisphere’s spring, and Rio de Janeiro, which hosted in August, aligning with its winter temperatures.

Cities in northwest Europe—like London, Oslo, and Stockholm—may become more attractive for future events, while Mediterranean cities such as Palermo and Seville are projected to exceed the heat stress threshold. High-elevation cities in South America could also gain appeal as global temperatures rise.

The upcoming 2028 Summer Games in Los Angeles will benefit from the city’s moderated temperatures due to the cool Pacific Ocean. The 2032 Games will be held in Brisbane, Australia, during its winter in late July, which offers a more favorable climate.

Looking ahead to the 2036 Games, more than 10 countries have expressed interest in hosting, with six submitting official bids: India’s Ahmedabad, Indonesia’s Nusantara, Qatar’s Doha, Turkey’s Istanbul, Poland’s Warsaw, and Chile’s Santiago. CarbonPlan’s data indicates that nearly all these cities will breach the heat stress limit at some point, though Santiago is currently below the threshold year-round, even in the peak summer months. Ahmedabad and Doha might face significant challenges during summer but could potentially offer cooler season options.

Oriana Chegwidden, a climate scientist with CarbonPlan, highlights the urgency of addressing these risks. “Throughout much of the world, the worst heat of the year unfortunately coincides with when the Summer Olympics are typically held,” she stated. “Heat could indeed pose significant risks in the countries bidding for the Olympics in 2036.” To mitigate these risks, she suggests starting events before or after peak summer, or scheduling them during cooler early mornings or evenings. Additionally, considering cities with cooler climates or higher elevations could offer viable alternatives.

Some cities that have previously hosted the Summer Games, such as Beijing, Athens, Rome, Atlanta, Tokyo, Seoul, and Barcelona, are projected to experience excessive heat and humidity by 2050. While Southern Hemisphere cities like Sydney, Brisbane, and Rio de Janeiro would face extreme heat, they could still host the Games in their cooler seasons.



ETB NEWS: Wenrui Fei and Meixing Ren.