International Institute for Strategic Studies expert on war in Iran and what could happen next

Описание: (3 Mar 2026)
RESTRICTION SUMMARY:

ASSOCIATED PRESS
Doha , Qatar - 3 March 2026
1. SOUNDBITE (English) Sascha Bruchmann, defense analyst at International Institute for Strategic Studies:
"So what we've seen in the last 72 hours is a surprise attack against the Iranian leadership. And you saw that the Supreme Leader was in a morning meeting together with his defense minister, the chief of the armed forces, the head of the IRGC, who were all killed in that strike. Subsequently, you saw the U.S.-Israeli strikes hitting especially air defenses, and then the Navy, so the IRGC Navy in the ports of Bandar Abbas and Chabahar. And then more and more strikes against missile infrastructure. So that's command and control centers. But then it's also what the Iranians call the missile cities. Look, these are underground missile bases where they store, partially produce, and prepare the weapons."
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2. SOUNDBITE (English) Sascha Bruchmann, defense analyst at International Institute for Strategic Studies:
"So, and I think gradually we'll see, I think the Israelis have already started last night, we'll see a shift gradually. And with the other things in parallel happening, but like the proportion of forces assigned towards degrading the Iranian law enforcement, the Basij and the IRGC. So the suppression apparatus of the regime."
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3. SOUNDBITE (English) Sascha Bruchmann, defense analyst at International Institute for Strategic Studies:
(Answering question on Iran's offensive strategy)
"But they're also trying to figure out where's the critical infrastructure, the oil and gas infrastructure, and where's it vulnerable? Like which vectors, which angles, how low can the drones fly without being detected by radar? Where can we slip through the defenses? And overall, we're seeing over 90% success rates for interceptions. But you know, it's hard not to focus on a drone that slips through and targets an Aramco oil facility, especially if it's one that produces half a million barrels of oil per day. So I think that's the game that's currently being played. The Iranians are trying to figure out how to punish (US) President (Donald) Trump and imposing costs through the global economy, through oil prices and inflation that reflect inside the US, because they couldn't quite figure out how to crack the U.S. bases and how to bring dead soldiers home. So they're trying it in a different way."
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4. SOUNDBITE (English) Sascha Bruchmann, defense analyst at International Institute for Strategic Studies:
"I think the Iranians have this idea by punishing the GCC countries they can actually break them out of the coalition. Now, I think it has the opposite effect of them closing ranks and getting closer to the United States. But nonetheless, the original design, I think of the Iranian strikes was to impose costs to... and with the UAE, you look at this, what is it trying to do? In Dubai, it's trying a diversified economy, it's going away from oil and gas. That's the airport, that is the hotels. In Bahrain too. Bahrain is a hub regionally with hotels and real estate being part of the economy and that's what's being struck."
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5. SOUNDBITE (English) Sascha Bruchmann, defense analyst at International Institute for Strategic Studies:
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6. SOUNDBITE (English) Sascha Bruchmann, defense analyst at International Institute for Strategic Studies:
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7. SOUNDBITE (English) Sascha Bruchmann, defense analyst at International Institute for Strategic Studies:
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