Running simulations: What factors could lead America to another civil war?

Описание: In 2024, the Center for Ethics and the Rule of Law at the University of Pennsylvania created a simulation to examine the potential for civil unrest surrounding a presidential election.

More than three dozen national security, military and election leaders used Philadelphia as a test case, asking what would happen if a newly elected president illegally ordered the National Guard to move in and stop protests.

Claire Finkelstein is the founder for the Center for Ethics and Rule of Law. She tells Scripps News what is happening in Minneapolis looks a lot like what their exercise found.

"We put together this exercise, want to be very clear, before the 2024 election," Finkelstein said. "So we did not know who would be the next president, but one of the things we were concerned about was for the possibility of the very kind of tension that we're seeing between federal authorities and state authorities in situations in which you want them, you hope, that they will be working harmoniously together to deal with the tensions that have crept up between federal authorities and the people in widespread demonstrations."

"We saw situations like this in Portland in 2020, in my own town of Philadelphia in 2020. And when there is something that goes wrong, like the killing of an American citizen, as has now happened twice, you really want to feel that federal and state law enforcement officers are working together. But the fact that they are not in this case is posing a significant threat that unfortunately our scenario did model," Finkelstein said.

The risk of a confrontation between two sets of authorities still exists despite recent efforts to draw down tension, Finkelstein said.

"There are signs that we may be facing an off-ramp, that things may be calming down. The fact that we have Tom Homan stepping in now, that possibly Kristi Noem is is taking more of a backseat, that we see a little bit more collaboration and the conversation between Governor Waltz and President Trump. These are all good signs. We want that communication to happen."

"But the risk is that if federal agents continue to violate the law, which there's ample evidence they have been — and if the National Guard troops backing up Minnesota police end up having to step in to protect Minnesota citizens, there could be a clash between the police, with National Guard troops backing them up, and ICE. If, further, President Trump goes ahead and calls out regular federal military such as the 11th Airborne, that is the sort of thing that in a worst-case scenario we were looking at and you could then have a moment of green-on-green violence in which you have a confrontation between the National Guard led by state authorities, the governor, and federal troops led by the president."

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