Video First Strategy: Substack TV, Heated Rivalry, Mamdani's Competency Porn, & The California Post

Описание: Sonia sits down with Mark Stenberg (Adweek senior media reporter) to break down the Oscars' hidden messages, Substack's pivot to video, Zohran Mamdani's PR blitz, and the New York Post's California expansion—all asking the same question: when do you listen to your core audience, and when do you bet on what's next?
The big thesis: video is eating everything, but evolution kills platforms faster than brands. Substack's adding TV despite writer backlash. Mamdani's turning local government into video content. The Post is importing tabloid energy to LA. Timothée Chalamet's Oscar nom proves sustained campaigns beat one-off moments. And all of them are wrestling with the same tension—preserve your identity or chase growth.
We're talking about:

Oscars 2025: Timothée Chalamet's _Marty Supreme _nomination, A24's $120M+ domestic box office record, why Hollywood insiders are rewarding movie marketing and indie craft, and F1's technical innovation nods
Apple's awards strategy: Why technical mastery (not just storytelling) is their differentiator from Netflix and Warner Bros
IMAX theater expansion: Do premium experiences justify higher ticket prices? Is dynamic pricing the solution?
Southwest's brand suicide: Eliminating open seating and free checked bags after private equity buyout, losing their only differentiator against United/Delta, and the budget airline death spiral (Spirit bankruptcy)
Substack TV launch: Shifting from "home for long-form writing" to "home for the best long-form work," TikTok-style feed, video posts, and why they're speedrunning the creator monetization playbook
Substack's ad problem: December 2025 sponsored ads rollout, creators managing their own sponsors, and why video without monetization makes no sense (YouTube wins by default)
Platform vs. brand evolution: Why writers are mad at Substack for adding video, but the New York Post gets celebrated for expanding to California
Heated Rivalry phenomenon: HBO's queer hockey romance hitting escape velocity, straight men posting TikTok reactions, stars carrying the Olympic torch in Milan, and why escapism + representation + great timing = cultural moment
Why Heated Rivalry works: Intersecting queer romance + professional hockey, female and queer audiences as jet fuel for pop culture, straight male viewership driven by emotional intelligence and sports authenticity, and NHL welcoming women to games (Taylor Swift/Travis Kelce playbook)
Zohran Mamdani's video blitz: Snow removal, public bathroom openings, pre-K classes, sanitation content, Tonight Show with Jimmy Fallon, and why competency porn beats political theater
Crisis comms as brand building: Over-communicating and using expected failure as a spotlight on city employees
New York Post's California expansion: Eight-week rollout, billboards in SF and LA, Yeasty Boys food truck wraps, coffee sleeve promos, and whether conservative tabloid energy translates to Silicon Valley's rightward shift
Media landscape shifts: LA Times dominance threatened, Page Six celebrity gossip tailored for Hollywood, Dodgers welcoming the Post (owner is mega Trump donor), and whether this is a profit play or a political mouthpiece
Why the Post's rollout missed: Marketing written by New Yorkers for Californians, lack of video strategy, and whether readers want California coverage or New York politics refracted through conservative lens

Plus: Why Monster's Inc is a marketing metaphor (laughter beats screams)
Guest: Mark Stenberg – Senior media reporter at Adweek, author of On Background newsletter (@markstenberg3 on all platforms)

Marketing takeaways:

Video is non-negotiable—Substack, Mamdani, and HBO all betting on it (even when core audiences resist)
Platforms face more friction than brands when evolving (Substack writers vs. New York Post expansion reception)
Sustained campaigns beat one-off moments (Timothy Chalamet's months-long Oscar push paid off)
Competency porn works—showcase the work being done, not just the outcomes (Mamdani's snow removal TikToks)
Over-communicate during crises to turn expected failure into brand wins (Mamdani using attention to spotlight city employees)
Escapism + representation + timing = cultural phenomenon (_Heated Rivalry_ during hockey season, Winter Olympics, geopolitical bleakness)
Female and queer audiences are pop culture jet fuel—don't ignore them (NHL learning from NFL's Taylor Swift moment)
Brand differentiation is sacred—don't sacrifice it for short-term revenue (Southwest losing open seating)
Positive emotions are more sustainable than rage bait (Monster's Inc Marketing Theory)
If you're expanding a brand, preserve voice but tailor execution (New York Post's California challenge)