You Pay $40 for Every $1 Walmart Earns.

Описание: Walmart's stock is up 383% in ten years. Its profit per share is up 79%. Most of the difference is the price people pay for each dollar of profit: about $15 in October 2016, about $40 today.

I take Walmart's ten-year return apart (profit per share × P/E = price), check what the business actually grew, flip the P/E into an earnings yield against the 10-year Treasury, and run it backwards: what profit growth does $110.56 need for a 9% return? Then the last time Walmart traded near 55 times earnings, in 1999, and the case for paying 40 times.

CHAPTERS
0:00 Fifteen dollars, then forty
1:21 Education, not financial advice
1:30 The trade
2:02 Where the return came from
2:26 Profit per share × P/E = price
3:13 Buybacks
3:38 What 40× buys you
4:30 The Aug 20 drop
4:51 What the P/E is saying
5:15 Earnings yield vs the 10-year Treasury
5:44 Is 40× high for Walmart?
6:31 The Outpick calculation
7:41 Five years out
8:14 It's happened before
8:50 The case for 40×
9:25 Value vs price

SOURCES
• Yahoo Finance daily closes for WMT (split-adjusted; Dec 1999 to Oct 8, 2026), dividends, and peer consensus EPS (Oct 8, 2026)
• Walmart 10-K and 10-Q filings, SEC XBRL company facts (CIK 104169): diluted EPS, net income, shares, operating cash flow, capex. https://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/browse-ed...
• Walmart Q2 FY27 earnings presentation, SEC 8-K, Aug 20, 2026. https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/da...
• Walmart 8-K earnings releases, Feb 21, 2017; Feb 18, 2021; Feb 21, 2012 (adjusted EPS and FY2012 EPS); Walmart 10-K FY2000 (sec.gov)
• FRED, 10-year Treasury constant maturity (DGS10), Oct 7, 2016 and Oct 7, 2026; CPI-U (CPIAUCSL), Jan 2021 to Jan 2026. https://fred.stlouisfed.org
• Business Wire, Dec 9, 2025, Walmart's Nasdaq listing; Walmart joined the Nasdaq-100 Jan 20, 2026
Figures labelled "Outpick calculation" (every Walmart P/E, the 10-year P/E range, the growth-needed and five-year scenarios) are computed from the closes and filings above.

Education, not financial advice. None of this is a recommendation to buy or sell Walmart or any other stock. No affiliate links.

#Walmart #StockMarket #Investing

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