Using Three-Point Estimation for Accurate Project Finish Predictions

Описание: In this video, we dive deep into the three-point estimation method and how it can be leveraged to predict your project's finish date with greater confidence. By using the optimistic, pessimistic, and most likely estimates for critical path activities, we calculate the expected project duration and its uncertainty. We explain how to apply the beta distribution to generate a range for your project’s finish date and assess the level of certainty. Learn how adding standard deviations can help project managers understand the likelihood of completing the project within specific timeframes—such as 68% confidence for the expected finish or 99.3% for a broader range. Whether you're planning a tight deadline or building in buffers, this method can provide you with actionable insights for better project forecasting.
14/22 lesson: Estimate Activity Durations (Schedule Management) PMP course

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