I Used MMA Math to Predict UFC Fight Night: Israel Adesanya vs Nassourdine Imavov

Описание: In this episode we recount what has happened to the MMA Math prediction models previous two predictions leading to it's record of 11-2. We then look at the main event of UFC Fight Night Israel Adesanya vs Nassourdine Imavov as well as the heavyweight bout between Sergei Pavlovich and Jairzinho Rozenstruik.

MMA Math Rules:
Looking at a fighter’s last 5 fights.
A fighter will get points for every victory relative to their opponents UFC ranking at the time, beating a champion will get you 16 points, beating ranked 1 will get you 15 points, beating ranked 2, 14 points and so forth.
You will also lose points for losses relative to your opponent’s ranking, losing against:
The Champ: -2 points
Ranked 1-5: -5 points
Ranked 6-11: -7 points
Ranked 12-15: -12 points
Unranked: -15 points
For both wins and losses if your opponent is ranked in another weight class but fighting in the weight class we are calculating, totals will be adjusted by + or – 2 either way.
Getting finished an extra -5 points on top. You will lose points for a streak of getting finished equalling 1 per loss.
You get an extra 5 points if you beat someone who your opponent has lost to. If your opponent avenged that loss, you only get 1 point.
You gain an extra 5 points if you have already beat your opponent, capped at 10 points.
You get an extra 5 points for a KO, TKO or submission, and extra points for a streak of finishes relative to the length of the streak. For example, if you had a 3 fight win and finish streak you will get 15 points base for these finishes and an extra 3 for the length of the streak making 18 points.
We will take 2 points off for split decision victories and add 2 points for split decision losses and 1 either way for majority decisions.
You will get 2 points deducted for fights that occurred outside of the weight class of the fight we are predicting. For example, if a fight is taking place at welterweight but fighter x fought at lightweight, if they earned 15 points for the lightweight fight we will deduct that down to 13 points. However, this deduction can’t go into negative points.
Doctors’ stoppages and no contests with be judged on a case-by-case bases.
And an extra 5 points if 2 or more of the judges gave you every round in a decision victory.
If you are over 35 you lose 5 points and an extra point on top of that for each year older than 35 you are.
If you are undefeated in the UFC, you gain an extra 5 points, if you have a UFC loss but are undefeated in your last 5 you get 3 points.
For the fight we are predicting, if you are fighting in your country of origin and your opponent is not from that same country, extra 5 points. (This does not apply to the United States and their fighters.)
If a fighter is taking a fight on short notice they will lose 5 points which I’m defining as around 4 weeks, no exact amount of days or weeks but playing that by ear case by case.

Timestamps:
Intro: 00:00
Israel Adesanya vs Nassourdine Imavov: 01:08
Sergei Pavlovich vs Jairzinho Rozenstruik: 08:35
Outro: 14:13