2019/03 Dr Lars Peder Haga: Russia – a near peer in the air?

Описание: Air Power Conference 2019 at The Royal Norwegian Air Force Academy.

The term «near peer» or «near peer war/near peer adversaries» has received increased attention the past few years, particularly in the US. After almost two decades of fighting insurgencies in Afghanistan and Iraq against adversaries inferior in technology and resources, other actors on the global stage have invested in technology, concepts and weapons systems that are challenging US military supremacy. China and Russia are of particular interest in this regard.

The US has therefore realised it has to develop its own resources further in areas such as microelectronics, artificial intelligence, electronic warfare, cyber and laser technology. The Americans aim to be globally dominant technologically by 2028. This has military strategic consequences for the US, NATO and other allies.

The new US defence strategy outlined in January 2018 makes this point explicitly, and argues that the central challenge to US prosperity and security is the re-emergence of long-term, strategic competition by what the National Security Strategy classifies as revisionist powers like Russia and China.

It is time to turn our attention back to threats from so-called "near peers", that is, players in our own neighbourhood, and how we can avoid and/or respond to a "near peer war".

Do we have the necessary strategic, theoretical, conceptual, technological and organisational "structures" in place to deal with a "near peer" today, or the next 10–20 years?
And what is the role of the Air Force to avoid a "near peer war" or, if this type of conflict should occur, to utilise the distinctive features of our air power in a joint operational framework to defeat a "near peer adversary"?