Putin's strategy in Ukraine ahead of Trump's return | Ian Bremmer's Quick Take

Описание: As the Russian-Ukraine war escalates, the United States and the United Kingdom and France have all given permission after months of foot dragging for the Ukrainians to use their missiles, these missiles provided by the NATO allies, to target military targets inside the Russian Federation.

Subscribe to GZERO's YouTube channel and turn on notifications (🔔):    / @gzeromedia  
Sign up for GZERO's free newsletters on global politics: https://www.gzeromedia.com/subscribe

Ian Bremmer's Quick Take:

A Quick Take to kick off your week. Want to talk about the Russia-Ukraine War. We are seeing further escalation over the course of the last week. The United States and the United Kingdom and France have all given permission after months of foot dragging for the Ukrainians to use their missiles, these missiles provided by the NATO allies, to target military targets inside the Russian Federation.

Putin has been warning them not to do that. They decided they were going to, the Russian response has been to formally change their nuclear doctrine so that they would be considered to be in a state of war legally against any country that allowed Ukraine to use their missiles against Russia. In other words, essentially, Russia is claiming that they're now at war with France, with the UK, with the United States. And also, the Russians used a medium range missile hypersonic nuclear capable directly against the Ukrainian target in Dnipro.

In other words, what we're seeing from Putin is, "I'm showing you what you're doing is moving towards World War III, and that's how I'm responding." Does that mean that Putin is actually escalating towards direct war with NATO allies? The answer to that is no. He wasn't doing that when he was losing the battle in Ukraine in the early months. He's certainly not doing it now that he's winning.

And he is winning. He has more troops on the front lines, including those from North Korea, those from Yemen, those that he's getting from other countries. Also, he's taking more territory on the ground in Ukraine at a faster pace now, more significant amounts of territory in Southeast Ukraine than at any point since the opening months of the war. Plus Trump is President-elect. Trump has said, "I want to end this war." And he is coming in just in a couple of months.

So what Putin is doing is not threatening World War III. He's instead showing off just how bad this Biden policy is, this existing NATO policy is. He's making it easier for Trump to pivot away and say, "I'm the peacemaker. We were heading towards World War III, this horrible escalation. I'm the guy that got the great deal done and look how brilliant I am." Putin is facilitating that.

Now, of course, to make that happen Trump still has to give Putin something that he wants. He has to give an outcome that is acceptable to Putin. And Putin's made clear, at least thus far, that he's not going to give up any territory that he has. That he's not prepared to accept that Ukraine would be able to join NATO. He's also said that Ukraine can't continue to have a functional armed forces which is something that would be completely unacceptable to Ukraine.

The devil's going to be in the details here. There clearly is an opportunity for Trump to end the war. He's promised he's going to end the war, and I think he can. I think he can create a ceasefire. The Ukrainian leadership has already made clear that they are supportive of ending the war, but they're not just going to listen. There has to be a back and forth conversation with the Americans. Seeing what it is that Trump is prepared to put forward, and whether or not the Russians are capable of accepting it, are willing to accept it. Even though it will look like a win for Russia compared to where they would've been under Biden, under Harris, or at any other point in the last couple of years.

Keep up with global news and why it matters. Follow GZERO!
X: https://x.com/gzeromedia
LinkedIn:   / gzeromedia  
Instagram:   / gzeromedia  
TikTok:   / gzeromedia  
Facebook:   / gzeromedia  
Threads: https://threads.net/@gzeromedia
GZERO World on Apple Podcasts: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast...
GZERO World on Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/13QW2sL...

GZERO Media, a Eurasia Group company, is a multimedia publisher providing news, insights, and commentary on the events shaping our world. Our properties include GZERO World with Ian Bremmer, our weekly show on US public television; our newsletters GZERO Daily, GZERO AI, GZERO North, and GZERO Daily with Ian Bremmer; our parody series Puppet Regime; our digital video series including Ian Bremmer's Quick Take every week; and the GZERO World Podcast. Our content is free and available at https://www.gzeromedia.com/.

#QuickTake #RussiaUkraineWar #NATO