Tropical cyclone Gezani latest satellite images update this is a dangerous system

Описание: This is a dangerous system. Possible risks include damaging winds, heavy rainfall, storm surge, rough seas, mudslides, and flash flooding.

Information provided by JTWCWind speeds and categorizations may differ from those reported by local meteorological agencies.

Gezani is located 491 km east of Antananarivo, Madagascar, and has tracked westward at 15 km/h (8 knots) over the past 6 hours. Maximum significant wave height is 7.6 meters (25 feet).

Gezani has just over 12 hours remaining before landfall in Madagascar as it is guided westward by a subtropical ridge to the south.

Given the compact and complete inner core that has developed, the rapid intensification that is already underway may continue until landfall.

The JTWC forecast presumes this will occur, showing a peak intensity of 205 km/h (110 knots) in 12 hours, supported by HAFS-A and multiple statistical rapid intensity aids.

There is above average uncertainty in this peak intensity value, given the rapid storm evolution that is ongoing. Model guidance expects Gezani to cross Madagascar in about 24 hours, emerging in the Mozambique Channel in 2 days.

While the storm will weaken dramatically over the mountains, the concave shape of the coastline near the exit point may facilitate quick reconsolidation of a compact wind field and reintensification over the channel, aided by a low-shear environment.

Model guidance is in good agreement on this general evolution through 4 days. During the 72–96 hour period, the subtropical steering ridge is expected to shift to the southeast of Madagascar and weaken, concurrent with a longwave trough digging into South Africa, causing Gezani to turn southward. This is where model spread balloons, based mostly on Gezani’s latitude.

More southerly tracks across the channel result in a straight-forward southward recurvature, depicted by the majority of models. However, some models like GFS, HAFS, and minority ensemble clusters show a more northerly track, causing the longwave trough to miss the storm, allowing Gezani to continue westward or even turn northwestward into Mozambique as a ridge replaces the trough over South Africa.

The JTWC forecast sticks to the recurvature scenario, but lower than average track forecast confidence in the 72–120 hour period may persist until Gezani reestablishes on the western side of Madagascar.

The JTWC track forecast is close to the multi-model consensus, leaning towards a blend of the ECMWF, AIFS, and Google DeepMind ensemble mean.

The JTWC intensity forecast is above the multi-model consensus through 12 hours, then near the multi-model consensus through 2 days, and then near the upper edge of the model intensity envelope beyond 3 days, partially due to some models moving inland over Mozambique and weakening.